KEY 0.00% 0.1¢ key petroleum limited

quarterly report, page-19

  1. 259 Posts.

    Converting the gas into boe depends on certain variables such as the gas price that is realised.

    Given a 1TCF discovery and an average price of $3 dollars per mmscf of gas for the gas that is sold (pure speculation but some people insist so for arguments sake let's make it $3) then my napkin-valuation indicated it will be worth around $300,000,000 to Key over the life of the project. And this also assumes all of the gas can be sold to market.

    1TCF / 5 = 200B
    200B / 1000 (gas per mmscf) = 200 000 000
    200 million X $3 = 600 million
    600M / 2 (after tax and royalties) = $300,000,000 profit.
    I have not considered costs to bring the project online as IMO they will be insignificant (ie <1M for KEY).

    I am inclined to dismiss the assertion that the discovery is 1TCF of gas. The SS field - 1TCF - produces from a 100 metre plus gas column, and M & P haven't disclosed the length of their gas bearing sands however it is probably 200 metres plus.

    The confirmation of the 'potential' for the shallower tertiary structure that will 'likely' prove a target of further exploration activities in the block is interesting. IMO they are explicitely referring to oil here, and I think well testing to begin in two weeks or less will confirm live crude oil shows.

    SS.

 
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