KEY 0.00% 0.1¢ key petroleum limited

Converting the gas into boe depends on certain variables such as...

  1. 259 Posts.

    Converting the gas into boe depends on certain variables such as the gas price that is realised.

    Given a 1TCF discovery and an average price of $3 dollars per mmscf of gas for the gas that is sold (pure speculation but some people insist so for arguments sake let's make it $3) then my napkin-valuation indicated it will be worth around $300,000,000 to Key over the life of the project. And this also assumes all of the gas can be sold to market.

    1TCF / 5 = 200B
    200B / 1000 (gas per mmscf) = 200 000 000
    200 million X $3 = 600 million
    600M / 2 (after tax and royalties) = $300,000,000 profit.
    I have not considered costs to bring the project online as IMO they will be insignificant (ie <1M for KEY).

    I am inclined to dismiss the assertion that the discovery is 1TCF of gas. The SS field - 1TCF - produces from a 100 metre plus gas column, and M & P haven't disclosed the length of their gas bearing sands however it is probably 200 metres plus.

    The confirmation of the 'potential' for the shallower tertiary structure that will 'likely' prove a target of further exploration activities in the block is interesting. IMO they are explicitely referring to oil here, and I think well testing to begin in two weeks or less will confirm live crude oil shows.

    SS.

 
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