Only 3.8 M regular shares traded so shorts were 3 X not 1/3! which is not unusual. Again most shorts are day trades and with stock up steadily during the day I would guess most lost money on Tuesday!
What would you expect to happen to actual shorts when posted in 4 days. Increase? Decrease? I have no idea but my guess is in percent terms it will be tinny probably 0.2% or less.
You imply that shorts may cause a short squeeze. Yes a small one ( a few cents) maybe but usually when shorts impact SP it is with a big change in shorts about 6 to 9 % of shares in just a few days. On August 16 Shorts were at 1.5% of Lynas 13.4 M shares On last day reported Oct 13th they were at 2.9%, 26M shares. A 1.5 % change over two months would only cause a penny or two Delta in stock price, if anything.
I have put together a chart for you and all people who think shorts have a impact on Lynas Sp. I compensated for (T+4) If Shorts went up and stock went down or shorts went down and stock went up change column is green. If both went in same direction red. I hope all who believe in a strong short impact will study this and see that the impact is. 56% of time stock and short direction do not agree, My conclusion is Shorts influence stock price very little at the % shorts that Lynas typically sees. Well below 8% where most people say they become a factor.
I am not saying shorts cannot influence a stock, they can. Not at the small day to day change that Lynas sees.
Take a look at volume when stock goes down. If there was suddenly a big shorting my guess is volume would quickly rise to absorb it.
Date
Close*
Volume
Shorts M
Short change
SP change AUD
changes agree
1
19-Oct-21
7.38
3,853,901
0.10
2
18-Oct-21
7.28
5,512,239
0.33
3
15-Oct-21
6.95
4,273,800
0.17
4
14-Oct-21
6.78
4,742,130
0.29
5
13-Oct-21
6.49
2,716,682
26.3
0.5
-0.05
6
12-Oct-21
6.54
3,875,575
25.8
-0.5
-0.02
7
11-Oct-21
6.56
3,145,877
26.3
0
0.05
8
8-Oct-21
6.51
3,562,292
26.3
0.5
0.03
9
7-Oct-21
6.48
4,025,969
25.8
-0.4
0.23
10
6-Oct-21
6.25
4,569,372
26.2
-0.8
-0.19
11
5-Oct-21
6.44
7,502,370
27
0.8
-0.02
12
4-Oct-21
6.46
3,914,550
26.2
0.4
-0.04
13
1-Oct-21
6.5
6,674,226
25.8
-2.5
-0.21
14
30-Sep-21
6.71
6,573,214
28.3
0.6
0.03
15
29-Sep-21
6.68
7,179,913
27.7
1.8
-0.34
16
28-Sep-21
7.02
3,780,521
25.9
0.4
-0.09
17
27-Sep-21
7.11
5,433,627
25.5
0.3
0.19
18
24-Sep-21
6.92
4,462,301
25.2
1.6
0.03
19
23-Sep-21
6.89
4,625,316
23.6
-1
0.00
20
22-Sep-21
6.89
4,251,594
24.6
0.3
0.14
21
21-Sep-21
6.75
8,958,667
24.3
0
0.10
22
20-Sep-21
6.65
11,071,032
24.3
1.7
-0.89
23
17-Sep-21
7.54
8,348,661
22.6
7.54
24
LYC Price at posting:
$7.38 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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