Quarterly Results - due on Friday, page-7

huge short sells being almost two thirds of the days trades = over 1% of Lynas shares , most occurring at 7.28 at auction ?

First I question your data there were 9.7M short shares traded.

LYC     LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED         FPO                9,700,495         902,411,554        1.07

Only 3.8 M regular shares traded so shorts were 3 X not 1/3! which is not unusual. Again most shorts are day trades and with stock up steadily during the day I would guess most lost money on Tuesday!

What would you expect to happen to actual shorts when posted in 4 days. Increase? Decrease? I have no idea but my guess is in percent terms it will be tinny probably 0.2% or less.

You imply that shorts may cause a short squeeze. Yes a small one ( a few cents) maybe but usually when shorts impact SP it is with a big change in shorts about 6 to 9 % of shares in just a few days. On August 16 Shorts were at 1.5% of Lynas 13.4 M shares On last day reported Oct 13th they were at 2.9%, 26M shares. A 1.5 % change over two months would only cause a penny or two Delta in stock price, if anything.

I have put together a chart for you and all people who think shorts have a impact on Lynas Sp. I compensated for (T+4) If Shorts went up and stock went down or shorts went down and stock went up change column is green. If both went in same direction red. I hope all who believe in a strong short impact will study this and see that the impact is. 56% of time stock and short direction do not agree, My conclusion is Shorts influence stock price very little at the % shorts that Lynas typically sees. Well below 8% where most people say they become a factor.

I am not saying shorts cannot influence a stock, they can. Not at the small day to day change that Lynas sees.

Take a look at volume when stock goes down. If there was suddenly a big shorting my guess is volume would quickly rise to absorb it.

	Date	Close*	Volume	Shorts M	Short change	SP change AUD	changes agree
1	19-Oct-21	7.38	3,853,901			0.10
2	18-Oct-21	7.28	5,512,239			0.33
3	15-Oct-21	6.95	4,273,800			0.17
4	14-Oct-21	6.78	4,742,130			0.29
5	13-Oct-21	6.49	2,716,682	26.3	0.5	-0.05
6	12-Oct-21	6.54	3,875,575	25.8	-0.5	-0.02
7	11-Oct-21	6.56	3,145,877	26.3	0	0.05
8	8-Oct-21	6.51	3,562,292	26.3	0.5	0.03
9	7-Oct-21	6.48	4,025,969	25.8	-0.4	0.23
10	6-Oct-21	6.25	4,569,372	26.2	-0.8	-0.19
11	5-Oct-21	6.44	7,502,370	27	0.8	-0.02
12	4-Oct-21	6.46	3,914,550	26.2	0.4	-0.04
13	1-Oct-21	6.5	6,674,226	25.8	-2.5	-0.21
14	30-Sep-21	6.71	6,573,214	28.3	0.6	0.03
15	29-Sep-21	6.68	7,179,913	27.7	1.8	-0.34
16	28-Sep-21	7.02	3,780,521	25.9	0.4	-0.09
17	27-Sep-21	7.11	5,433,627	25.5	0.3	0.19
18	24-Sep-21	6.92	4,462,301	25.2	1.6	0.03
19	23-Sep-21	6.89	4,625,316	23.6	-1	0.00
20	22-Sep-21	6.89	4,251,594	24.6	0.3	0.14
21	21-Sep-21	6.75	8,958,667	24.3	0	0.10
22	20-Sep-21	6.65	11,071,032	24.3	1.7	-0.89
23	17-Sep-21	7.54	8,348,661	22.6		7.54
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