Quarterly Revenue Projections

Reported quarter-on-quarter cash flow and revenue growth achieved in 2015 bodes well for Alexium’s being able to meet its stated baseline revenue target for 2016.

Cash flow growth was substantial during the latter part of the year, coming off a low base, and revenue growth of 130% and 44% was achieved in the last two quarters, respectively.

The Company's Foundations for 2016 document projects minimum (baseline) revenue of US$18.5M (A$26.4M) for this year from the current order book. A quarter-on-quarter revenue compound growth rate of 60% would achieve that target. To meet the stated full order book potential of US$44.7M (A$64M) from existing customers would require 110% revenue growth quarter-on-quarter throughout the year.

The chart below shows projected quarterly revenues that would satisfy the baseline target through consistent 60% growth.



Operating expenses have averaged $3.3M over the last two quarters. Assuming a figure of $4M going forward, the indication is for positive quarterly net cash flow around the middle of 2016.

For comparative purposes I have included also a chart recording cash receipts over the last two years. By my calculations about A$1.1M of reported revenues from the 3Q15 and 4Q15 quarters had not been banked by the end of December. Most of that amount should contribute to receipts for the current quarter, so I have included this as a guide.



Values are in AUD assuming the A$/US$ exchange rate to be 0.70. The information is posted as a new thread in order to easily allow for future comparisons.