Chezd, more brilliant research.. that is fascinating. How do you do it!!? :)
Will need to take a much closer look at that one!
Thanks Simon for that interesting rejoinder.. and it is good to have some robust discussion going on all the points I raised... !!
You have clearly been communicating directly with AVB Management and speak with the confident authority of one who has! great stuff... ! well done! Like amulet though I immediately siezed on the Vale money being 12 - 18 months out, and not only that, it is only "potentially" coming and not definite. I don't know how others feel about that but I find it staggering. To me that is market sensitive stuff which I prefer to hear through a formal announcement, but never mind.... all good stuff! :)
I was counting on that money Big Time and SOON .... so to have its receipt shuffled off into the never-never (12 - 18 months "potentially") and such a statement could/should never be made unless it came through management, then you have raised my concern-level greatly... not to say I do not appreciate that information, I do!! It is why we are here after all. To get the truth. (I think)... hot tips!
No matter how I look at it, a fabulously wonderful company like AVB with the worlds best copper tenements is winding back its drill programme because it is running down its cash is to me essentially a bad thing. IMO Slowing down drilling is NOT a DILIGENT use of funds for a company that is supposedly an explorer and working its assets (tenements) fully. It may be prudent, sure... because when you run low on money you conserve it of course, but I am a shareholder who wants to see an aggressive drilling campaign developed across exciting tenements using the skills of AVB's army of incredible geos.. and no matter how I look at it, and how much I want to... I just cannot come up with a positive SPIN on slashing the AVB drilling exploration program. So we will differ happily on how we view it.
Pedra Branca was far more documented than the Westerlies and yet even confidently later in the piece we get 13 - 29 "No significant results" (a miss) plus the infamous drill 12 - 25 with the high expectations only to find nothing. So yes I still say exploration is hit or miss, with a higher proportion of misses in the early stages while the resource is defined. Info of a sort is gleaned from a miss of course, but give me a HIT any day! So we will agree to disagree. No big deal.
Increasing JORC is a wonderful and noble thing, however the market/SP just does not respond. So if it is nobility you want, figures on paper, yes great !! Personally I want a big sp rise... 10c and beyond. THAT is bankable. AVB had a 14c SP and has since had a more than tenfold increase in JORC Cu. It is now 6c... That is the precise reason JORC does not do it for me personally. Not to say spin cannot be put on a rise in jorc. It can obviously, but it does nothing for me based on SP history. A personal thing.
As for Mine Finance it will happen I believe. Don't care too much when. Am still waiting for the Smelter deal but am sure it is going to happen too because AVB said it would. Comments re funding were quoted directly from a TV program where a similar company to AVB also had the worlds best Mine profit study Figures (hey they cannot both have them!) The guys there said even if you have the worlds best figures, or second best for AVB, it was very very very tough. This was at odds with AVB Management (and discussions) suggesting that people were queueing up to force their money on AVB. I still cannot reconcile the two vastly differing scenarios.
Anyway interpretation of drill results is subjective and we all have our own opinions, which vary depending on the colour of the glasses we are wearing at the time. It is OPINION after all.
Anyway I appreciate the heads up on the very delayed Vale money. As a mention of a capital raising is not permitted for fear of affecting the SP (shhhhh...) and scratch Vale cash, I am now at an absolute total loss now to know where operating cash is coming from beyond Christmas.... other than Father Christmas? Or simply not doing much drilling and retiring to the pub to save cash... Where on earth is the money coming from to drill and pay for the coffee. No, not TP's Frequent Flyer points either...
Hopefully Management answered that critical and extremely valid question.!!
Cheers, PP
AVB Price at posting:
5.9¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held