Well, after quite a gap 'Hello All' and I hope you are well ! At the beginning of March I took a well-timed vacation in the sun, and then returned right into UK Lockdown. Frankly I had also become a bit bored with reading silly posts from 2 or 3 subscribers whose only motivation seemed to be talking the stock up or down, which is just a waste of time on here. Also there was so much predictable stuff about the Pandemic, so I just decided to lie low until the mist started to clear. Hence my absence from these pages, but my commitment to VMT as an investment (rather than gambling) stock remains firm.
A few comments, in no particular order, which may be of interest to the serious investors amongst you :
1. Share Holdings. Very much as predicted, we see that the % of shares held by the largest investors increased again in 2019. The 'Top 20' now account for over 50%, but dig deeper and there's a more telling story. 13 of the T20 are the same as the previous year, and even the Citicorp Nominees entry is primarily one underlying holding. Others at the bottom of the list pop in and out of the T20 from year to year, but the point is that VMT remains tightly held, with many of the larger investors quietly accumulating as time goes by. Several of the T20 have been there for 6 years or so. By my estimation the directors, ex-directors and others associated with them now control something like 45% of the Company's stock, and eg the Chairman (PC) only misses the T20 because his interests are split between different holding vehicles. The point I am making once again is that the Company is pretty tightly held and controlled, and that major investors continue to accumulate stock and demonstrate confidence in the Company. This is a strong indicator to other investors for stability and future potential.
2. New Share Placement. I don't think this is a problem, and it certainly accounts for the current stall in the SP. They already have positive cash-flow and available funding, but there is no real reason not to take the explanation (ie prudent building of reserves) at face value. Once the price is fixed on 5th May the SP should move again. I have subscribed and see it as a good opportunity. In the past I have been critical of Management for making placements without offering participation to all shareholders, whereas on this occasion although the format is a bit fiddly it is open to all. My guess is that it will be oversubscribed, and if so they should probably run with the over-subscription. The cost of the placement is only 2% and incrementally that will decrease, so it is fairly cheap money.
3. Pandemic Effect. Clearly there will be some short-term impacts on the retail business, simply because outlets have been closed and potential customers are off the streets, but the B2B business should get a big boost. The demand for delivery services has increased substantially, and many new subscribers to delivery services will continue to use these services, whilst at the same time many businesses which have started providing take-away offerings for the first time due to the lockdowns will continue to do so. All good for VMT.
4. EVs generally. A lot of stuff, like climate change, has gone on the back-burner, but the trend to 'clean' propulsion systems will resume. I believe that we should separate E2V (2&3 wheels) and E4V (4+ wheels) as the future for these may be quite different. E2Vs will continue to be helped by technical innovations and improvements in battery technology, whereas the future for E4Vs will likely be impacted by alternative propulsion systems in the medium term. I also think that comparisons to Tesla are dodgy, as we see once again how that Company's stock can be manipulated; more of a gamble than an investment imo.
So there is still much to be very positive about here for serious investors, and I will still not be surprised if my original 45p SP forecast for the end of 2020 is close to the mark. There are plenty of good indicators in the Annual Report, and it is significant that the Company mentions that potential distributors are now seeking-out Vmoto, rather than Vmoto having to look for distribution. That will mean better deals. To those who purely want to use this site for posts that attempt to influence the SP up or down I would say you are wasting your time and probably spending as much on brokers' fees as you are ever likely to make on your trades. To the many committed investors, I hope that my observations give a few more facts to ponder and I believe that we should be in for many more positive months ahead. Best to all. 2000.
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