quarterly , page-15

Daveyf

I hope so!!!

Here is the latest MacQuarie Research re: Copper Price for 2011/12:

Macquarie commodity forecasts :
Source: Macquarie Research, January 2011


Commodity Spot 2010 2011 2012

Fines (FOB) US$dmt 169 135 156 143

Coking Coal US$/t 355 215 251 223

Thermal Coal US$/t 136 98 145 110

Aluminium Usc/lb 111 99 120 100

Copper Usc/lb 438 342 500 500

Nickel Usc/lb 1173 990 1100 950

Zinc Usc/lb 111 98 110 119

Uranium Usc/lb 65 46 72 70

Gold US$/oz 1367 1225 1456 1350

Platinum US$/oz 1811 1605 1825 1850

A$/US$ USc 0.98 0.91 0.96 0.90




An optimistic macro picture. Key leading indicators highlight robust underlying Chinese growth and the likelihood of developed world industrial production being stronger than anticipated in 2011. Following the general destocking of last year, we expect a return to strong growth rates for Chinese apparent metals demand over coming months. Acceleration in US growth is now broader based than three months ago and risks around potential European sovereign defaults remain overstated. In our minds, the key short-term risk remains Chinese inflation and the nature/magnitude of the policy response it elicits.

Taking it to a whole new level. This burgeoning demand outlook has been met with an assortment of supply challenges (floods, infrastructure issues, export bans, grade declines) that have combined to see iron ore, coal and copper markets tighten dramatically over the past quarter. An excellent marker of context here is to compare our new 2011 and 2012 copper price forecast of US$5/lb with the all-time nominal high of US$4.42/lb (reached a couple of weeks ago). Similarly, from the equity perspective, our revised BHP Billiton price target ($53.00 per share (ps)) is now over 5% above the company's previous all-time trading high. In summary, the big increases to our forecast deck have come in iron ore, met and thermal coal, copper, oil and uranium. From current spot price levels, our most bullish outlook is in copper and oil.