Hi Tony If you think 7c is ludicrous the least you could do is...

Hi Tony

If you think 7c is ludicrous the least you could do is explain why. It is within quite a narrow range of values which has been established in the market over a considerable period of time.

What may change the price towards the values you desire is materialisation of the some of the things you bang on about (1) takeover and (2) V or J curve reaction in the oil price, plus (3) significant upward revision of reserves/resources (including any exploration success).

You may wish to refer again to the spreadsheet link, where at least the assumptions used to arrive at the "market forecasts" are explained. They are also displayed in detail on the full spreadsheet example, and that also includes highly speculative (but I think informative) pay translation assumptions and how they might relate to potential resource numbers (within the limitations of the information we have been provided with).

http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/far...update.2676788/?post_id=16765278#.Vq1xrVIpp0w

pj