Well who would have thought they would have been able to extrapolate what happens high up in our atmosphere just from Surface pressure and ozone.
Pretty interesting concept.
They are pretty confident they have nailed the modeling on the QBO pre 1950s. Personally I found it difficult to believe they could have managed that from surface pressure. But they have.
Reconstructing the quasi‐biennial oscillation back to the early 1900s
[1] The quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) is important for understanding the dynamical and chemical variability of the global stratosphere. Currently available wind data from the equatorial stratosphere extend back to 1953. Here we present reconstructions of the QBO extending back to 1900 that can be used to constrain climate model simulations. The reconstructions are based on historical pilot balloon data as well as hourly sea‐level pressure (SLP) data from Jakarta, Indonesia. The latter were used to extract the signal of the solar semi‐diurnal tide in the middle atmosphere, which is modulated by the QBO. The reconstructions are in good agreement with the QBO signal extracted from historical total ozone data extending back to 1924. Further analyses suggest that the maximum phases of the QBO are captured relatively well after about 1910.
