I think those are realistic assumptions. My only concern with your analysis is for $5 a kit - might be less due to bulk discount. Still, the fact they have got the irrevocable order and MOU for 6Mill is a positive sign.
Bird Flu might not be getting the press it used to, but it is still a major problem, especially throughout Asia. The test kit is a great product for the magnitude of the perceived problem.
I think Pepp sales will be interesting. I am still hearing accounts from people overseas that it definitely reduces hangovers, but it is something that is hard to assess without actually trying it.
RBY Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
