question for acouch, page-3

Ultra,

I am no EW guru (very much an amateur), but was mucking around with this just the other day and am finding the short term count too difficult to reconcile at the moment - if in doubt, keep it simple! A break of $27.50 and this was a W4 triangle for this current movement, a break of $26.75 and this was a series of 1's and 2's in the larger pattern.

In terms of the larger pattern, I am finding this much easier to count and CBA seems to be in W4 at the moment. This is my interpretation...

W1 = 34.94 to 29.02
W2 = 29.02 to 32.46
W3 = 32.46 to 23.05 (W3 can be subdivided into 5 waves : 32.46 to 27.95 to 30.41 to 26.50 to 28.08 to 23.05) W3 was almost 162% of W1
W4 = 23.05 to 27.90?? If $27.90, then W4 is within tolerances of 50% of W3 and 138% of W2.

Supporting this larger degree count is that, despite the current rally, the DMI on a weekly basis has not crossed (both DMI+ and DMI- have merged and are trending down), the weekly RSI has failed to hold its cross at 50, and weekly OBV stalled 5 weeks ago.

On the P&F chart, CBA is at the top of (and still within) its year long chanel and has formed a descending triangle = bearish. If this larger degree count is correct, we may or may not have a tiny bit more upside (depending upon your daily count for CBA) before more significant downside.

Daily technicals also support further downside from this point - RSI trending down and below 50 on Friday for first time since 18/3; MACD crossed and going down, DMI cross on Friday, etc.

Obviously this larger degree count starts to become more probable on a break of 26.74. Watch price action Monday, but if we continue to see weakness, then the larger degree wave structure suggests much more downside to eventual new lows. If W5=W1, and if the peak was $27.90, then $21.98 is the first target.

Hope this helps and would appreciate any comments as (as stated before) I am very much an amateur at EW.

Regards,

Jaysee