jack64...I have attempted to cover my views on this on another...

jack64...

I have attempted to cover my views on this on another thread...lol...but no easy answer I am afraid.

In their current configuration, I would suggest about 30% overall ownership of the fully diluted company to the Cameroon partner, given what they bring to the table versus what CVI bring to the table, particular the people...for now.

Under CVI, this will likely get to production...I suggest under the partner it would not...so a significant value exists for the partner if CVI conclude the acquisition.

I respectfully suggest no acquisition will take place which effectively gives the partner more than 50% of the company...in fact I cannot see management accepting even 40% due to the vulnerable position it put everyone in in terms of future corporate "activity"

So, using 40% as a cut-off and assuming an NPV of $50m for CVI's 50% of 20% of Cameroon...and say add $30m for the rest of the company...we get an instant market cap of some $155m (2 x $50m + $30m), 40% of which will be held by the new partner (Turnberry) and 60% of which will be held by existing shareholders.

On this basis, the acquisition price will need to be about 35.5c (ie...60% x $155m / 263m shares)

These are raw asset values...as it stands an asset in the hands of someone incapable of developing it is worth maybe $5 per barrel in ground for an asset like Cameroon...but in the hands of a far more capable crew, you can virtually double this.

I feel this will be an important influencing factor here.

The premium that I suspect will follow the CVI acquisition once bedded down...is also why I suspect Turnberry will, to a degree, be happy with a much higher acquisition share price in spite of the obvious dilutive effect on their overall share of the pie via CVI in a scrip purchase scenario.

As I have said previously...everyone including Turnberry knows this acquisition will not go ahead with a share price under about 35c...and even here it will still only be a line ball call. So, whilst obviously diluting their eventual exposure, for Turnberry a slightly smaller percentage of a viable project is far better than no project at all.

On this matter, do not forget CVI are only buying about 28% of Turnberry...so in the end, Turnberry's exposure to Cameroon via CVI is not as important as the rest of their retained exposure...so the value to them of a viable project goes far beyond their holdings in CVI.

It is perhaps the latter argument that I suspect will see Turnberry as active as anyone else in pushing CVI's share price up to more viable levels...within reason of course…to say 50c or so, at which point I would expect something of a battle to develop between the larger CVI support base and Turnberry themselves...where one side will want the price higher and the other obviously would like it capped.

However…given these levels are some 5 times current prices, I suspect it would be a “problem” not too many shareholders would be all that concerned about.

lol

Now...all this relates just to Cameroon...but if you add additional Angola Oil concessions to CVI's asset base and perhaps a few decent intersections from the near-term Angolan metals dilling campaign, then obviously management and I suspect most shareholders, would like to see Turnberry's percentage of ownership of CVI considerably less 40%.

My view is they will eventually end up with something between 20-30%...in light of which, we can assume CVI may well delay any acquisition timetable until any Angolan Oil consessions are awarded and indeed, drill results from Catabola are in. In this regard, we can probably also rule out any spin-off of Angolan metals assets, no matter how good any discoveries may be…if for no other reason than to retain as much value in the pre-acquisition CVI share price as possible.

I also suspect we may see a few left of field developments here…and frankly would not be at all surprised to see their Cameroon exposure double prior to, or immediately after the acquisition.

I have said for some time, I see a near-term placement (within 2 months) in the mid 20's, followed by an eventual acquisition somewhere well over 50c per share...and as I have said, at a price as high as they can possibly get it.

We are clearly still looking at early days...but things should start to come together fairly quickly over the next few months in my view.

With Cameroon sitting on 12-24mmmbls (net to CVI)…and maybe more…plus gas which most seem to have forgotten completely, potentially significant Angolan oil assets, Angolan metals interests, their Quest exposure and indeed their free carried Indonesian interests…a market cap approaching $300m will not be out of the question in my view, the price at which time will clearly depend on the level of dilution introduced via placements and indeed the Cameroon acquisition between now and then.

This potential market cap is virtually from day one of all these assets being under control of CVI...a year or so after this could well see this doubled or more without a blink, especially if Cameroon progresses as expected...and they eventually increase their overall exposure to her as I also suspect they will.

As I see it, this is a rather big play at it's embryonic stages...so plenty can still go wrong...but of course, plenty can go right.

As small retail market participants, we are not constrained by the same rules that effect the funds and instos...so we can get in now and wait for things to unfold...and maybe sell some to them if we want to thin down when they can finally enter after she passes $100m or so market cap.

This was the way with both NDO and MPO…I can see no reason why CVI will not play out in a similar fashion.

By the way...these are just my views, so may well not eventuate...but it makes sense at so many levels, which is why I have put my money where my mouth is.

It may not be the right play for everyone though.

Cheers!