question for warrant guru,s, page-10

re: question for warrant guru,s ( to 618 ) Hoot,

My sentiment is similar to that of Turlet. Even though I did make a handsome profit on IZU a few months back, it was loose change I was playing with.

My problem with instalments in general is its time-sensitive nature. When ABN issued it originally, they marked it for expiration in Jan 06 - expecting production to start Mar 06. You are effectively gamblign whether or not the market will mark up Hardman based on projected cashflow in time before the warrant expires. It's probably a better bet now that the JV are quietly confident of an earlier production start date with likely increased reserves.

Of course, I'm only referring to Chinguetti because that is the only sure thing for Hardman at the moment. If any of the exploration wells come good, then IZU/IZZ holders will be laughing all the way to the bank. BUT, IMHO, you wouldn't want to bet yuor hard-earned on the drillbit because the risk is simply too high.

So with the rolling instalment, it is effectively a margin lending loan without the margin call. Like I said earlier, if you win, they charge you interests on your net winning position. The more you win, the more interests you will be paying on each rollover date. If you lose, tough luck I guess.

The only good thing with the rolling is its long effective date. It is a 10 to 15 year bet with huge amount of leverage. Remember, there is no short cut to making money. If there is, it probably carries a much higher probabilities of losing money too. The good old axiom of "higher risk, higher returns".

IMHO, ABN are out there with the sole intention of making a killing. It's like a casino.... play often and long enough, and you'd end up losing more often than not.

Good luck. Only piece of advice I can give you, if you decide to take the plunge into IZZ world, is to size your position carefully, set the appropriate stop loss, have a plan - and execute it when required. By buying the underlying instrument, I don't worry about the daily movements or timing of the price action over a certan period of time. I believe in the potential of Mauritania, the management of Hardman, and the long term growth prospects of Hardman (Guyane, Falklands, Uganda, etc).

Time will take care of my profit in due course. In the mean time, I can sleep peacefully :)

618