SYR 3.28% 29.5¢ syrah resources limited

Question Syrah must answer, page-9

  1. 331 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 27
    Actually you can calculate the sell price and it is a reasonable level. They had quoted $680 as a target and that is about what it is. How to calculate.
    First production cost is $400 or less a ton (and costs will go down with volume next year)
    Second, prorate production ramp up quarterly at 15, 35, 50, 60 tons per quarter for the year end 160 tons
    Third, Syrah states it will be cash positive the last two quarters, therefore, sell price is in excess of $400. In addition they have talked about approximately $50M cash flow positive. At $650 a ton (previous target was $680 analysts) that is $32 million third quarter. In the fourth quarter that is +$39 Million. While this is in excess of the $50 million excess cash flow that Analysts had been forecasting, Syrah has to make up for first two quarters of low production and cash negative start up period.
    Not a bad sell price if we assume that 2019 doubles production to 300+ tons, Spherical, and tight supply raises the average sell price and reduces cost per ton as fixed costs are absorbed.
 
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