All this analysis is very simplistic.
Low CO2 gas from Heron will be more valuable than the high CO2 Barossa/Calidita and the even higher CO2 Evans Shoal.
Then there is Blackwood upside.
Then there is the value of TSMP/TSLNG.
If the analysts are working off a 25% MEO basis for NT/P68, they should also include the $75m cash kicker and use a 95% POS as at this point FID will have been reached. If they want to apply a lower POS, fine, but then MEO will hold 50 - 100%.
Regardless, MEO is highly leveraged to success at HS-1.
MEO's ability to do deals will be valuable for Seruway and 454P farmouts which should again deliver large free-carried upside.
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