Questionable

We were told the inst cap raise was over subscribed for extras etc etc

But this cap raise looks like this to me:
Total issue: 698m, or excluding Hopu cornerstone with their entitlements, 447.5m
Hopu so far: 217.5m (31%)
Insts so far (assuming Hopu did not take extras in the inst): 119.5 (17%, or 27% excl H)
leaves:
Hopu extra they can take - assuming they haven't already???: 33m (5%)
Retail: 328m (47%, or 73% excl H)

Retail have to take well over 2.5 times what the insts did. In 7 years trading crap raisings for a living, I can't remember any like this, with such a whacky ratio. I'd love to know how this came about.

The percentage that are institutional would appear to be 57% minimum. From the annual report - the top 20 excluding 4 that may be retail, there seemed to be at least 558m out of 964m - which is 57% of the total just in the top 20. There will definitely be more insts outside the top 20. I guess I would assume 75% as a wild guess. So looks to me like at least half of these institutional holders decided not to take up their full entitlement, if any at all!

If you disagree - feel welcome to tell me where I am going wrong. This capital raising looks like it may be under heavy pressure, and that there is way too much supply without a home. Obviously too much supply will make the SP lower.

My opinion only - do your own research and don't rely on me.