very true.The main deciding factor on how most retail shareholders will vote is simple.
If you bought 4m at 3.2c = $128k--happy-yes-why not? 4m at 3.8c or less ======= $150K--unhappy-? or if at 7c=============== $280k--WHAT? 7c or more =============== $350k--Feeling betrayed?
I am picking there are more retail shareholders that are nearer 7c than 3c and are not so happy giving their investment control away,without any concrete reason,or direct upfront cash premium to them,other than "Shandong wish to see the majority of the sum put into our ground as we do".
There may be more concerted voting groups than you realize,that WILL VOTE,or have their shares voted for them in their best interests.
$40m or so of the last placing was to investment groups at over 7.7c,who if they still hold,will not be so happy.Many possibly from the UK,i believe."Old money" doesn't like the loss of value.Nor do those advising individuals (forget the company name)lining up these buyers who want repeat business. If you've ever been asked to be a banks Private Client,you know exactly what i mean in the way of investment return guarantees,services and personal guidance you receive. Like sure things,like Lloyds in the good old days,or a new compliant regime in tinpot Africa.Roll a board-why not? The problem with such groups,is they are not affiliated financially,or through blood,but through personal contacts,much like an unregistered trust fund,so don't show up on share registers as necessarily large holders,or holders of note even,however act in concert as advised.UK's still the biggest overseas investor in America by the way and it isn't big companies investing,it's these groups of individuals. If they pushed the Board tip vote last time,through formally Registered Trusts as a wake-up call,no doubt they will do the same again,BUT possibly have an alternative crew lined up to take over,if need be.It's not the trusts themselves,but the outside investments by Private Clients that follow a more focused view of their investments with individual investments on their own accounts. Targeted investors - banks and boards call them. Their advisers make suggestions to boards and nominate competent people to fix problems. This time they will have a few mums and dads who were too cheap to put a stamp on the envelope,or fill out the form,voting as well,not like last time. Don't see it as a real possibility? - Time to wake up. The Board should have taken the very serious public hints given last time,when trusts openly voted against it,instead of just being mums and dads throwing the vote as was what i had thought and occurred in most ASX companies. They should also have taken out STONE,before de-listing CRE as they could possibly have done too.That just required a conversion of options,for money already invested in Laverton.Trouble is they were talking to STONE and who was Stone talking to and making introductions to at the time,i wonder? That's why they may truly get the NO and a tip from these disappointed investors. A no-lose opportunity thrown away?Eyes off the ball? Grannie lined up with,either we do up our mill and leave you with a dinosaur MAROONED mill and costs,or you sell it to us cheap deal,with cash generated from a few good high-grade ore runs at Laverton - no longer a possibility? It's not as if IMHO I don't believe the mined ore's already there to do just that. IMHO I don't think this registry is as OPEN as people think,thanks to day traders who Shandong have mainly flushed out(90m shares)especially SHANDONG.Or maybe Shandong do know that from having tested the waters and the only way they would ever get a controlling interest without a financial blood bath is this way DIRECTLY FROM THE BOARD with lots of mums and dads hopefully voting yes. Access to "ZETOC" is a good place to start if you are allowed access.
It could have been played out so different,if handled better - FOR ALL SHAREHOLDERS couldn't it?
DYOR+DYODD If they want half-BUY HALF AT A PREMIUM.Not too many sellers says maybe I'M RIGHT,most of the free float is gone.The vote may confirm it for sure. Best levered company to a significantly rising gold price in Australia,with upside says it as well.Stone were happy with 15% of Laverton. Maybe Shandong will end up with 30% of FML due to the uncertainty raised after a NO vote and no say as well in a new board.That will however give CHINA 40% of Laverton on the cheap and whatever happens there,with competent ground management,running operations,if you get my drift. Who's played into their hands by their actions-NOT US shareholders that's for sure.Is that another reason to vote NO-i suspect so and HOW MANY DO YOU NEED when you've seen such potentially no-lose opportunities to add to existing shareholder value vanish,through chasing a "Cornerstone Shareholder/Investor"?
FML Price at posting:
3.7¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)