I’m anticipating a turn around soon with Keytone; I think it’s a...

I’m anticipating a turn around soon with Keytone; I think it’s a decent investment with lots of upside from here, and not too much downside. (Refer to most of Tripple Top’s analysis in these forums to see why)

Although is it just me that thinks the comparisons with BUB, A2M and NUC are not necessarily helpful ? I’m sure they are relevant because there is some product and industry overlap.
But they are different business models deriving varied sources of revenue from different geographic regions. Bubs and a2 milk have taken a massive share price hit because their largest source of revenue (Baby formula) is now in danger in their largest prospective market (China). Both companies have had their growth strategies centred around China much more than KTD ?

Geopolitical tensions between China and Australia as well as the covid related disruption of the daigou channel is the central reason for the price drops. This affects KTD to some degree maybe, but I don’t think the negative sentiment of KTD shareholders is strongly related to this issue, nor is it a useful indicator of how the share price should move in the near future

Correct me if I’m wrong but KTD is much more diversified and not as dependant on China ? Not as an exporter of any particular brand. Australian branded Baby formula, and sales of Australian branded products into China is not the crux of KTD’s business. These other companies have invested lots of time, money and resources expanding into China and this is all now in jeopardy. I think it’s inaccurate to say the drop in share price for KTD is strongly related to sentiment in the Australian Dairy industry. Its a vague and distracting comparison.

Instead, the drop in share price for KTD, I believe is due to ambiguities relating predominantly to:

- The credibility of management and their history of communicating with shareholders effectively

- The ability of the company to scale its operations and achieve profitability within a reasonable time frame

- Selling off by top shareholders (former directors)


It is fair to be skeptical Of these factors; although I think everyone is missing the bigger picture here. The revenue growth over the last couple of years has been sensational. They have their own brands that are growing and are winning manufacturing contracts that can be of great strategic importance for future growth. They have contracts in China, but are not in anyway in the same danger of losing their sources of revenue.

I think when the numbers turn around this thing can move (hopefully soon) and those who are overly hesitant of vague notions of sentiment in the ‘dairy industry’, might miss out on a potential bargain !