Hi Anatol I have read every single one of your posts and I think you are fairly smart so I have a few questions for you
1) Do you think mgmt will announce a larger rampup ~ 3mtpa?
2) If so, what are the capex implications. $500m per MT?
3) What sort of NPV are we talking about here?
~ Conservative Per MT cashflow:
($550 price - $150 opex - 50 capex)= $250m CF
3MT= 750M CF?
5BN NPV?
What EV - CF multiples do these things trade on when they are still in exploration/scoping phase
4) What DD have you done on the country?
5) Who is EMC investments?
It would be great if you made one giant post on just valuations in terms of NPV, Price per in-situ resource - this is distorted due to capex and opex adjustments.
Otherwise I rather like the potash space: A case for agriculture by Passport capital being a splendid read
http://www.marketfolly.com/2009/10/case-for-agriculture-from-hedge-fund.html
They are bullish Potash. One of the best hedge funds in the world.
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