Hi ValueinsightI'll try to answer your questions briefly as I am...

Hi Valueinsight

I'll try to answer your questions briefly as I am also working on other stocks atm and need more time.

First of all, ELM is a life time opportunity and ELM shares need to be taken care of. Elm has the best potash reserve in the world atm.

Q - "Do you think mgmt will announce a larger rampup ~ 3mtpa?"
A - I am sure they will. They can talk about that at any time as they have the very large commercial quantitites and grades of resource at very high level. Otherwise why would they keep exploring such a large area and what they would do with the current 800mt (which will most probably increased to 1.5bt in 6 months time (a very large portion of that resource will be measured and indicated as 41 holes will be drilled)

Q - 2) If so, what are the capex implications. $500m per MT?

A - According to ELM's early intitial rough calculation $600m Capex would provide 1.2mt production. If you bring this to 3mt, I think $1.5b Capex would be enough for 3mtpa underground mining in Congo.

So, capex implication: $500m per MT (million tonne)looks ok.

Q - What sort of NPV are we talking about here?
A - SHARE PRICE VALUATION
If we talk about Conservative Per MT cashflow (your way of valuation. I am not sure if it is correct to apply this calculation to an exploration company);

$550 : Potash Price pt(per tonne)
- less
$150 : Opex + freigt (pt)
$ 50 : Capex (pt)
---------------------------------
$350 profit pt (CF)

3mt x $350pt CF = $1050m = $1.05b EBIT
(EBIT : Earings before interest& & tax)

We don't have any EV - CF multiples for these things when they are still in exploration/scoping phase.

Here is a sample data for a producer;
PotashCorp 2010 Financial Overview
http://www.potashcorp.com/annual_reports/2010/md_and_a/performance/financial_overview/
10mt sales of potash income = $6.538b ($350pt potash price)(inc.some phosphate. Operating income: $2.548

High Case : $23 per share
If we use 4x EV - CF multiples.
4x $1.050b = $4.2b
$4.2b / 180m shares = $23 per share

Low Case : $11.50 per share
If we use 2x EV - CF multiples.
4x $1.050b = $2.1b
$2.1b / 180m shares = $11.50 pers share

Q - What DD have you done on the country?
A - Not sure what is DD?

Q - Who is EMC investments?
A - There is two off-shore accounts (from Carrabian Island) hold through HSBC nearly 11% of the company. I think they bought the shares when they were very cheap. That could be anyome, you, me, one of the directors, Sprott Investment, etc. So it is unknown. That is designed for tax purposes but also puts a shiled in front of the shares. Those off-shore accoutns are shames.