Basically impossible to value msm atm, but for kicks and giggles...

Basically impossible to value msm atm, but for kicks and giggles here's how to get or not to get a 400mcap with a simple valuation model.
I'll leave the DCF, 5 yr growth, NPV whatever model to the broker report.

Depending on the growth outlook by end of 2018, how many countries app is licensed to, their success or not in monetisation, the dl and dau numbers, etc we'll just use an avg PE of 10. So earnings needs to be around 40mil.

Split into 4 main revenue streams. I'll be using 2mil downloads by end 2018 @ current dl run rate.

In-app purchases - includes live stream gifting, digital merchandise stickers etc, vote collectors, subscription to avoid ads and gain premium features (interact with judges?), performers paying to get their video featured standout, whatever your imagination can come up with...

2mil x 1% (avg monetised users) x $150 (we are already seeing users spending a top of $1190 and weekly top avg between $100- $200 in live stream gifting so i assume implementing other in-app purchases will increase overall avg) = $3mil.


In-app advertising - video ads like youtube monetisation model, subscription can bypass this.

2mil x 10% (current avg DAU) x 8 (ads seen per day @ 2 sessions, 20mins vids view, 5mins per length) x 0.008 (avg eCPM of video ads) x 365 (annualised end of 2018) = $4.6mil


Licensing/partnerships to other countries - really needs the above 2 streams to be profitable or what's the point for the Partner to run the comp at a loss? So will be interesting to see the terms of the India contract. If what management said is true, Riva to provide funding for marketing and celebs contracts, then we can assume total revenue from the 2 above needs to be over 5mil per competition and make a profit for Riva to waste their time on it. I'm assuming branding/sponsors for mini comps in current countries are at breakeven and purpose is for user acquisitions only.

Guessing licensing is $2.5mil per comp @ 2 comps a yr =$5mil


Big Data - basically sell all data collected from users, revenue usually equals advertising revenue, maybe lesser in this case due to video ads msm will be using attracts a higher eCPM compared to pop-ups.

=$4mil


So 16.6mil earnings at 10 PE is 166mil. Fully diluted SP including any cr is around 30c-40c. @4mil downloads or 20 PE thats 332mcap, 60c-80c. So needs current app updated for more user engagement and DAU. Also development in multiple countries to reach 400mcap valuation imho..or maybe just hype and pump will do it like any other spec stocks...