here's a summary of my thoughts - though summary doesn't mean short. if you have the patience, bear with me as i explain my thinking.
ok, here goes.
when some analysist were suggesting that the spx technically broke below the january lows in march and were predicting worse to come, i said at the time that i didn't agree. that is: if you look at futures, was actually a perfect double bottom (on cmc, it hit about 1253 in jan and about 1252 in march).
i thought we may have bottomed in january and if we saw any further weaknesss, the 360 on the weekly may hold the decline (currently at 1237).
however, supporting the bullish argument was the the jan / march lows also stopped at about 288 ema on the weekly - the point that held previous major bull market declines, including the 1987 crash - but of course, not the 2000-03 bear.
in friday's trade (actually our saturday morning) the spx stopped again were i had indicated earlier in the week were support was and finished the session slightly above that support line.
as i said yesterday morning, resistance has now formed around the 1334 level.
monday is, i understand, when index options expire in the u.s. our's was last week (i don't trade futures - so correct me if i'm wrong here) - so that would also explain in part our strenght last week in the face of a weakening u.s. market.
there is also the well timed announced out regarding the treasury's proposal before congress re: the fed picking up additional powers. that may be sufficient to provide the necessary pop up on monday to enable the spx to finish to month of march in the GREEN. note: last month's close was 1330.6 according to incredible charts.
in my little game of probabilities, i suspect if we close in the range of 1331-1334 on monday, that may be a short term high with another decline to follow.
imo, for the spx to maintain its bullish scenario, the decline here should be short and sweet both in time and price(perhaps around 1280-90 and worst case, 1240 - but i'm starting to doubt that last one is possible).
i still think that the 10th of april is a high....and am now thinking that voltaire is going to lose his bet because his date may prove to be the low. hehehe
HOWEVER, i think (but not sure yet) if we get a strong rally into the 10th of april (up to about the 90 ma and some weakness/decline/consolidation to the end of april, that may be sufficient to resolve the slightly bearish setup i have on the weekly chart.
worse case scenario, is that we're in a bear similar to 2000/3 decline and an equivalent low on the spx is about 1060 from my calculations.
for now, i'm with the bulls on this one - but the market has to prove itself.
so that's my long winded explanation of what i'm seeing (i think) and how the above plays out will help (i hope) me decide what to do about investing in the medium term.
(20min delay)