CVN 2.50% 19.5¢ carnarvon energy limited

Quiet Trading Today, page-134

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    Hi gottalove. The reference to $1 was just for a TO with current know oil. I agree Apus and Pavo are very promising and if they prove successful then there's blue sky above $1. My only concern is the water depth there. It seems to be in much deeper water. I hope I'm wrong. Can anyone help here? Dorado is in very shallow water and from what I've read this has cut the estimate Capex in half. Morningstar, when reviewing STO, thought the capex would be much higher. Refer extract below. Also reading FAR stuff on its Africa oil with WPL the Capex was much higher. Perhaps water depth is critical to Capex but I'm ready for the experts to shoot me down. Any information would be appreciated.

    Regards
    Grasshopper.

    Santos also estimates an initial gross production rate from Dorado of 75-100 thousand barrels of oil per day, or kbbl/d, considerably above the 50kbbl/d we'd credited. And its estimate for Dorado gross capital expenditure is just USD 1.9-2.2 billion, well below the near double we'd assumed. The benefit from a fair value perspective is only partially offset by a slightly delayed ramp to 2025 group production levels.

 
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