(restructuring of RAC's 3 pillars at the end of 2021 make the older valuations above redundant/confusing)
IMO. DYOR. Highly speculative and not advice.
A few perspectives on valuing RACE Oncology.
Valuing FTO
USD $120B total addressable market. Zantrene as First In Class and Best In Class likely has potential to secure around 40% of this market.
This is for just the 3 initial indications for FTO that RAC are focused on ... USD $2.6B revenue implies buyout valuation USD $11.75B or AUD $90 per share for the three initial indications.
Note the weighted average 4.5x revenue multiple above for peer / blockbuster buyouts.
1. https://www.gilead.com/news-and-press/press-room/press-releases/2020/3/gilead-to-acquire-forty-seven-for-49-billion
2. https://www.investors.com/news/technology/biotech-company-gilead-buy-forty-seven-ftsv-stock-soars/
3. https://www.fiercebiotech.com/special-report/immunomedics-top-10-takeover-targets-biopharma
4. https://www.cancer.org/cancer/breast-cancer/understanding-a-breast-cancer-diagnosis/types-of-breast-cancer/triple-negative.html
5. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-loxo-oncology-m-a-lilly-idUSKCN1P10YZ
6. https://www.fiercepharma.com/marketing/array-s-colorectal-cancer-data-shows-why-pfizer-splashed-11b-for-biotech
7. https://xconomy.com/national/2015/03/05/abbvie-snaps-up-pharmacyclics-pays-whopping-21b-for-cancer-drug/
8. https://endpts.com/gsk-bags-tesaro-for-5b-as-it-leaps-into-commercial-oncology-and-beefs-up-cancer-drug-pipeline/
Valuing Cardioprotection
A couple of angles on valuation of the cardio-protection:
- Sale of IP for a better formulation/combination of carfilzomib. See Post #:58522418 ( I think this is conservative ). Result is a conservative sales value USD $2.0B for one of the small cardio-protection indications (for multiple Myeloma). RACE could potentially sell the IP for multiple formulations for Zantrene used as cardioprotective agent with other cancer drugs.
- @Mason14 estimated revenue potential USD $73.5B for using Zantrene as a cardio-protective agent in combination with Anthracyclines ( doxorubicin, Doxil, epirubicin, etc, etc ). Mind boggles at extreme underlying revenue potential ( estimated USD $163B ) if Zantrene used in combination with multiple classes of cancer therapy.
Valuing RACE in a partnership
Shareholders might achieve better long-term value if RACE continues developing / spinning out IP into licensing deals potentially with royalties.
A partnership or series of partnerships could also be stepping stones to future buyout.
From a partnership RACE could achieve an extensive cash runway from upfront cash payments and contingent milestones whilst they continue developing data / IP. Licensed IP would eventually move to sales by a big pharma with RACE achieving royalties on sales ( i.e. potential dividend runway ).
Simplistic way is to look at the potential value of a partnership is to average per-share value of cash + equity + milestones which is AUD $15.
1. https://www.gilead.com/news-and-pre...-acquire-tizona-therapeutics-for-$300-million
2. https://www.biopharma-reporter.com/Article/2020/02/25/GSK-signs-partnership-deal-with-Immatics
3. https://www.biospace.com/article/su...ion-agreement-to-advance-immunotherapy-agent/
4. https://www.gilead.com/news-and-pre...nse-agreement-for-novel-immunotherapy-program
5. https://pharmaphorum.com/news/merck-cuts-1bn-deal-with-janux-for-cancer-t-cell-therapies/
6. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rel...or-targeting-the-ilt2-receptor-301206200.html
7. https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/accent-astrazeneca-take-aim-at-rna-modifiers-55m-cancer-pact
8. https://ir.cytomx.com/news-releases...-therapeutics-and-astellas-announce-strategic
9. http://ir.blueprintmedicines.com/ne...-announces-global-collaboration-roche-develop
10. https://www.gilead.com/news-and-pre...ialize-next-generation-cancer-immunotherapies
11. https://ir.genmab.com/news-releases...-abbvie-announce-broad-oncology-collaboration
12. https://www.businesswire.com/news/h...nnounce-Two-Strategic-Oncology-Collaborations
13. https://www.fiercebiotech.com/partn...al-to-buy-into-juno-s-pipeline-of-car-t-drugs
14. https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/celgene-confirms-9bn-juno-buyout-sees-3bn-sales-for-jcar017
15. https://www.amgen.com/newsroom/pres...ash-with-future-contingent-milestone-payments
RACE in their recent presentation also gave some examples of preclinical deals in the RNA regulation space.
(20min delay)