RAC 7.61% $1.70 race oncology ltd

Do you mean just the remaining pre-clinicals or all expected...

  1. 350 Posts.
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    Do you mean just the remaining pre-clinicals or all expected upcoming announcements being positive?

    It's an interesting place we're in for sure.

    Contrast with this time last year... share price close to all time high, sentiment absolutely buzzing, eager anticipation for a promised string of upcoming announcements to rocket us to the moon. I remember I think it was the day after the last announcement in March 2021, the share price took a pounding and that was the start of the last year of price action that we've had. In hindsight that we were obviously priced for perfection and that was "the peak" (for the time being hopefully). Although as someone else mentioned recently (I think it may have been @LongTony) many of us here took it to be the market finally recognising and pricing in the promise that Zantrene/RAC holds, which evidently appears not to have occurred (yet).

    Here we are a year later... share price (almost) halved, sentiment in the toilet, people almost dreading announcements for fear of the selling that's going to occur regardless of how good the news is. But is RAC still "priced for perfection" and primed for a sell off as a result? I really hope not but with the global environment is playing a significant part in overall sentiment as well it's hard to know what is priced in and what's not. So it probably can't be ruled out, but I think it's less likely though.

    Then you have the fundamental picture where RAC's fundamentals would appear to have significantly improved over the past year... cardio protection, ccRCC, clinical trial running in Israel with potentially 2 or 3 more to start this year, well funded after CR, not to mention upcoming news which we hope will add to that picture. Yet at 180 million shares fully diluted (and assuming ~$40 million in cash), EV for RAC (i.e. Zantrene + any new molecules up the sleeve) has now dropped to around AUD400 million / USD295 million. So at some point, assuming someone with a pharma interest and a calculator is aware of RAC, it surely must become a value play given the promise that seems evident. You would think this has to put a floor under the price somewhere.

    And RAC appear to have put the kybosh on any short term partnership being announced due to having to sacrifice too much at this stage, which says to me they are willing to look past any temporary share price weakness rather than try to give it a definite sugar hit. They can do this of course since we're well funded for the foreseeable future. But this approach really only makes sense if you're confident about what you have and the results it's going to deliver, so assuming we trust management, I think that says a lot actually.
 
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