My estimate using broker data and his previous substantial...

My estimate using broker data and his previous substantial holder notices is that BG held 5,095,579 shares as at 11 March 2022.

Based on broker data my estimate is that BG sold 3,203,346 between 1 November 2021 and 28 February 2022 indicating an average 1,067,782 sold per month during this period. This allows estimate of BG's holding for end of March, April, May and June as shown below (if average rate of monthly sales from November through to February). This implies the selling will finish sometime in early July if this average rate of sales can be maintained (needs news flow to help drive volume).


From early February we have seen an increase in the average weekly sales via Shaws. I'd like to see this starting to achieve and then maintain a level above 188,432 shares per week as this will then mean end-month estimates above will be achieved or passed.

I hold the view that volumes will pick up, particularly once the market realises the supply via BG / Shaws will run dry within months.