Thanks
@EWexplorer and
@Satishbh.
A few thoughts, both FA and TA:
1) Retail - I agree, current trades are dominated by retail & retail exhaustion
2) Shorting - RAC never had significant shorting, so I would discount this indicator.
3) FOMO - this really depends on what people collectively expect from the upcoming updates. From what I can read on hotcopper, very mixed opinions. That pretty much reflects my personal take - if you look at the last quarterly ("in H1 CY 2023, shareholders can expect...") [0], we'll probably get BAU updates saying "things are progressing.... takes time... trust us". Of course, there can always be a left-of-field Ann, but by definition we cannot expect them. As you wrote before, the current shareholder base has been exhausted. No real sign of FOMO from entering shareholders (this is not just a RAC problem, the whole market is
FUBAR...) I think expecting FOMO in this context is paradoxical. Also I am really doubting about any external shareholder's ability to perceive "value" for this stock. If they did not see "value" at $3, $2.5, etc. with OK macro conditions, then why would they perceive value at $1.5 in terrible macro conditions? So, likely a reversal would have to do with actual clinical progress, and given delays with AML recruitment and others, that's not happening until 2024-2025 IMHO.
4) The 600K cross trade - definitely a positive, that said it is not new that some RAC holders are extremely bullish. I think this is nothing more than an isolated data point so I would tend to discount this.5) Macro markets: all eyes on US debt ceiling issue (looks like they are slowly getting through the hurdles). Perhaps, the end of the tunnel in the next couple of days. This has been a tough 2 years on macro level, so some respite for us would be welcome.
So, my guess: no double bottom , a strong'ish price resistance around $1.5 that will play over a 1 year window. We may have a long term trend reversal there, but nothing too obvious. If double bottom, it is playing over a one year period (June YoY). Recovery Could take a longer time to build up and would have to do so from (hopefully) positive anns along the way. From Investopedia [1]: "In terms of profit targets, a conservative reading of the [double bottom] pattern suggests the minimum-move price target is equal to the distance of the two lows and the intermediate high". In other words, $1.40 + $2.75 / 2 gives a $2.07 price target in 1 year.
In conclusion, if I had money to accumulate more (I don't), I would probably hold on until better signs of a reversal. IMHO...
[0] https://app.sharelinktechnologies.com/announcement/asx/e90440a31fa418b5b0b1afc4e324fd2f
[1] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/doublebottom.asp
(20min delay)