Just because the offer settled at premium to the SP of 57% on average, doesn’t mean that’s what the offer was calculated and made on.
You’re comparing fairly valued players many of which were in the multi billions prior to an offer.
Peak sales is what drives it.
If your worth $3b and your peak sales estimate is approx $3b, minus cogs (assuming 50%) & then multiplied by 3 that’s where your prob seeing 50-60% premiums.
If your worth $300m and have a TAM worth north of $5b per annum on a bad day, do you think BP are offering a premium to the SP or working back from peak sales?
I’ve heard top analysts confirm they work off peak sales & discount for risk + costs to scale etc:
A Premium to the SP is an out come, not a determinant.
RAC - Charts & Price Action, page-20757
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Last
$1.45 |
Change
0.030(2.11%) |
Mkt cap ! $247.1M | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $1.43 | $1.45 | $1.40 | $163.8K | 115.3K |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 500 | $1.44 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $1.45 | 31396 | 1 |
View Market Depth
| Last trade - 16.10pm 15/11/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
| RAC (ASX) Chart |