Interesting thoughts about future price movements.
So, the percentage gain from the high of the previous years first quarter (0.49c) compared to the high of this years quarter ($4.23) is +863. If we take this as face value and assume the same percentage gain for the next year, we could expect a first quarter 2022 price high of $36.51. Given buyout premiums are on average 200% of the VWAP, this could be the necessary SP target to achieve a buyout +$100 per share.
However, if we take into consideration that bisantrene being discovered as an FTO inhibitor significantly altered the direction and SP movement of RAC, then we could make some adjustments to this estimation of future price. I am going to assume that although Bisantrene was linked to FTO inhibition in July of 2020, I believe that the market had begun to catch on around October 2020, as this is where price started to move significantly more than it had done in the past. October would allow enough people to begin to understand the complex mechanism of FTO.
Therefore, assuming the 12th of October high ($1.00) was the
sign of price movement that related to FTO inhibition as well as other indicators and comparing it to the high in March 2021 ($4.23) gives a 423% gain in 147 days. If that same momentum was to continue, it would result in a 1108% gain over 385 days and a first quarter 2022 SP high of $46.68.
What is interesting to note is that both of these figures ($36.51 and $46.86) lie well within the log chart provided by
@wombat777. At a 200% premium,
that puts buyout figures in the realm of $109.53 and $140.58 in the first quarter of 2022. Key catalysts for a transaction of this scale is consistent positive price movements driven by RAC management demonstrating clinical efficacy for bisantrene as an anti-cancer agent and FTO inhibitor.
And, if you are the type of person that thinks this kind of growth can't happen, take a look at Afterpay.
Personal opinion: I am so very thankful Dr. T is leading the charge. Even if it was to fail, I would walk away a happy man having confidence that our leader did their absolute best.
All IMO - DYOR
