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$1.77 race oncology ltd

RAC - Charts & Price Action, page-4636

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Rhino1963

2,784 Posts.

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17/03/21

06:14

Post #: 51820374
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Originally posted by Mason14: ↑

Interesting thoughts about future price movements.

So, the percentage gain from the high of the previous years first quarter (0.49c) compared to the high of this years quarter ($4.23) is +863. If we take this as face value and assume the same percentage gain for the next year, we could expect a first quarter 2022 price high of $36.51. Given buyout premiums are on average 200% of the VWAP, this could be the necessary SP target to achieve a buyout +$100 per share.

However, if we take into consideration that bisantrene being discovered as an FTO inhibitor significantly altered the direction and SP movement of RAC, then we could make some adjustments to this estimation of future price. I am going to assume that although Bisantrene was linked to FTO inhibition in July of 2020, I believe that the market had begun to catch on around October 2020, as this is where price started to move significantly more than it had done in the past. October would allow enough people to begin to understand the complex mechanism of FTO.

Therefore, assuming the 12th of October high ($1.00) was the sign of price movement that related to FTO inhibition as well as other indicators and comparing it to the high in March 2021 ($4.23) gives a 423% gain in 147 days. If that same momentum was to continue, it would result in a 1108% gain over 385 days and a first quarter 2022 SP high of $46.68.

What is interesting to note is that both of these figures ($36.51 and $46.86) lie well within the log chart provided by @wombat777. At a 200% premium, that puts buyout figures in the realm of $109.53 and $140.58 in the first quarter of 2022. Key catalysts for a transaction of this scale is consistent positive price movements driven by RAC management demonstrating clinical efficacy for bisantrene as an anti-cancer agent and FTO inhibitor.

And, if you are the type of person that thinks this kind of growth can't happen, take a look at Afterpay.

Personal opinion: I am so very thankful Dr. T is leading the charge. Even if it was to fail, I would walk away a happy man having confidence that our leader did their absolute best.

All IMO - DYOR

Expand

Originally posted by Tooks23da6P: ↑

Mason14 thanks for the write up and analysis that adds to the other information and the conversation here. As you mentioned earlier people are starting to learn about RAC & that includes myself.

I only heard about them a few weeks ago as I had been ignoring a fair bit of the posts on Reddit ASXBets that were trying to pump up stocks until I came across a due diligence post. Then I listened to an investing podcast which is how I heard about HotCopper & then came across here to find this awesome group. Reading Wombat's, Dr T's & your comments among others.

Again thumbs up for the positive discussion& "meaningful comments".

Expand

Originally posted by LongTony: ↑

Hi Mason, we're operating with exponential growth rates here so the share price ratio of 423% in 147 days is like doubling twice in 147 days; ie approximately doubling every 73 days or doubling 5 times a year. If that same growth momentum continues for a year then we're talking 32x for the 12 months (that is a 3100% gain for the year).

Note also that the $1 to $4.23 is a 323% gain while the ratio is 423%.

These concepts of ratios, gains and growth rates are important when we're talking growth rates versus linear growth. As is commonly attributed to Einstein "Compound interest is the 8th wonder of the world."

For those who have been invested since winter 2019; the rise from 10c to $1 was a 10x event with a gain of 9x; in the 147 days since we left $1 behind it's a 4x event but the gain is 30x the initial investment. The first 10x is good; the second 10x is awesome because it's actually 100x; if we ever get toward the $100 range it's going to be staggering because the next 10x is actually going to be 1000x. You have to imagine a pretty small initial investment before 1000x isn't a significant event.

Some of the first posts I think I recall reading on Hot Copper were now familiar RAC holders expressing disbelief at getting on a plane and then getting off again to find that 8 cents had been left behind. Now we sometimes see 50 cent movements intra day! That's five bags in a day for a 10c buyer and that's the power of compounding growth and the power of running winners.

With so many "baked on" investors from 2019 and early 2020 still here there could be some astonishing outcomes for long term holders to match the lifesaving potential of bisantrene.

Expand

Interesting observation and well thought out Mason
I would love the SP to play out that way
Its good to know other companies have had their SPs play out that way...
I would be retired.

ALL IMO

At the risk of sounding like a downer...
This is but one of an infinite number of ways the SP could play out.

Tooks, you referred to the post as "meaningful comments"
The reality (no offense Mason because your research is great) is this is simply an observation in patterns and then extrapolating those patterns to see what might be for the SP.

LT a great observation in compounding that everyone should know and learn, especially borrowers for home loans etc!

We have all heard the industry super fund adverts saying "Past performance is not an indicator of future performance"

Then there is the saying "Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics"

I suggest that using this pattern to extrapolate the SP is dependent on positive news and only positive news.

Any bland or perceived negative news may scotch the whole pattern.
The timing of announcements also needs to be spot on to support the pattern.
There is a lot of risk in Biotech investing (medical and execution etc)
IMO it would only take one poor message to change the pattern.
The timing of announcements also needs to be spot on to support the pattern.

Ultimately, these posts unintentionally set expectations in people minds.
The problem this can create is that a sale below $100ps may be seen as a failure.
When in fact it would still be a huge success from where we are today and perhaps still a record buyout

It will be interesting to revisit this in 12 months to see how it played out and what curve balls (if any) came our way.

GLTAH & DYOR

Last edited by Rhino1963: 17/03/21

RAC Price at posting: $4.01 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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8 Great analysis

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(20min delay)
Last $1.77		Change 0.015(0.86%)		Mkt cap ! $300.6M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$1.82	$1.82	$1.77	$91.78K	51.30K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	31147	$1.73

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$1.80	8318	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	31147	1.730
2	10877	1.710
3	45398	1.700
1	4450	1.690
1	2500	1.680

Price($)	Vol.	No.
1.795	8318	1
1.800	40724	3
1.825	548	1
1.830	5894	2
1.840	10500	2

Last trade - 15.59pm 10/07/2024 (20 minute delay)

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