DYOR. This comparative analysis is not intended as financial advice. You are encouraged to do your own research and make your own investment decisions. Disclosures - held, sentiment bullish/long. This is my own analysis and I have not received compensation for it.Update of my log chart.
- A bit of a bounce this afternoon that might be enough to keep a steeper narrow uptrend going ( which I have now widened and drawn at a shallower angle assuming $3+ holds as support ).
- It is now 1 month since Dr Tillett exercised all of his 9.9c options early for "tax planning" purposes:
- "I chose to exercise my 4.25 million 9.9c options early for tax planning purposes. I have not sold any Race shares to fund the conversion, nor do I intend to sell any shares in the immediate or medium- term future. I believe Race Oncology has an extraordinary opportunity with Bisantrene and I look forward to seeing our clinical trial plans progress."
- We now have the context of the plans for preclinical activities and clinical trials - what has been started and what is due to start and gives us insights on what could be complete.
- Price action trends and preclinical/clinical activities could move the price:
- Notwithstanding value of Pillars 2 and 3 then preclinical data just for FTO could set a buyout offer at $20 in the September to January timeframe (peer transaction the Synthorx transaction)
- We are likely to have sufficient preclinical data for FTO by the end of 2021
- We may have a Phase I Dose Escalation trial for FTO inhibiting capability of Bisantrene underway by the end of the calendar year
- Notwithstanding value of Pillars 1 and 2, then early readouts for AML could set a buyout offer at $32 in the October to March timeframe (peer transaction the Forty Seven transaction)
- We could have first readouts for AML before the end of the calendar year
- Notwithstanding value of of Pilars 1 and 3, then readouts/results for Breast Cancer trials could set a buyout offer at up to $137 by October 2022 (peer transaction the Immunomedics transaction which was for a much narrower subset of Breast Cancer).
- We could have first readouts for Breast Cancer proof of concept trial by the end of the calendar year
- On a risked NPV I currently value all pillars up to $84.
- Further thoughts / notes:
- AML and Breast Cancer trials could take less time to recruit and achieve first readouts than initially thoughts, noting:
- Stated plan in Eureka report interview to market to Big Pharma from end of 2021 ... by end of 2021 we could have the following completed / underway or significantly progressed:
- Pillar 1 - FTO
- Preclinical data for FTO (Melanoma and ccRCC)
- A Phase I Dose Escalation trial underway
- Pillar 2 - Breast Cancer
- Preclinical data published in a prestigious journal
- First readouts from a Phase II Proof of Concept trial
- Pillar 3 - AML
- Preclinical data from MD Anderson published
- Preclinical data from MD Anderson presented at ASH
- First readouts from R/R AML combination trial in Israel
- EM AML trial underway
- IND for US Paediatric trial
- Dr T exercising options early - a buyout offer from December, allowing 4 months for formalities would see a transaction completing in early April 2022 ( just outside Dr T's "tax planning" window).
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Current risked NPV:
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Full PDF for analysis:
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Last
$1.94 |
Change
0.000(0.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $330.4M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$1.95 | $1.95 | $1.84 | $647.3K | 344.3K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 3300 | $1.87 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$1.94 | 5654 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 3300 | 1.870 |
4 | 46789 | 1.840 |
2 | 6500 | 1.830 |
2 | 649 | 1.820 |
1 | 829 | 1.805 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
1.940 | 5654 | 2 |
1.950 | 7570 | 1 |
1.960 | 1350 | 1 |
1.990 | 4701 | 2 |
1.995 | 10037 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 15/07/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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