I didn’t seek T20 info last year or in 2019 as was happy with the info periodically available (we get releases of T20 in August and in October).
With all the fear-mongering about selling I more recently decided to check for myself. Just e-mail requests. Recently lots of comments here about BG selling so I thought it important to find out.
There has also been speculation about a bot-driven accumulator but there is no one new in the bottom ranks of the T20 (so any accumulation is happening below the T20 - or in nominee accounts).
Any selling (or buying) could also be partly confirmed via broker data - although I don't have access to broker data.
But it is also clear from the changes in distribution reported in the quarterlies there is accumulation in the upper ranks of the register. Increase in number of holders in the upper two groups and increase in number of shares in those two groups. Perhaps further evidence of bot-driven accumulating.
Back to the SPAfter an early session drop to $3.05 on Friday, the price spent the remainder of the day trading quite strongly between $3.11 and $3.16. That’s a pretty good rejection of the down trend - i think mainly by our current longs (and probably some new traders taking positions).
Price has now finished well into the upper range of the support/resistance zone and has also stayed above the previous CR price ($3.00). That’s the usual logic anyway.
I think this week we’ll see a move above $3.16 and the SP is well on the way towards a breakout from this downtrend. Clear breakout once SP passes $3.21. Next target around $3.29.
Due to low liquidity the SP tends to make fairly bouncy moves (supports potential for a bounce back above the recent trend line) and maybe partly FOMO driven with updates on Pillars 1 and 2 pending within the next 6 weeks.
View attachment 3477434Where the market should be pricing RACEThere is a lot of a focus on FTO but getting back to the basics of the fundamentals, a market cap of $450M is just nonsense given the history of Bisantrene/Zantrene for AML.
Big Pharma values an AML indication at USD $4.9M ( AUD $6.65B ) based on the Forty Seven transaction.
https://www.gilead.com/news-and-pre.../gilead-to-acquire-forty-seven-for-49-billionThis means that the market is pricing in only 6.7% probability of success …
(i.e. RAC market cap AUD $450M / Forty Seven buyout AUD $6.65B)
RACE has a drug that not only performs well in R/R AML based on the historic trials ( red box below - an average 52% complete response in the historic Phase II trials as pointed out by
@Mason14 ).
Results for AML enabled approval in France for treating AML and it also enabled the long-term survival of 2 French girls (life extended by around 30 years so far). These women now also have their own children.
https://www.raceoncology.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/PBC-060818-Bisantrene-Combo-Poster.pdfIt’s essentially the two French trials that formed the basis of the approval (circled in green).
View attachment 3477398Then in 2020 RACE have a trial completed in Israel (investigator-lead) in a population of mostly triple-refractory patients. This was a single-agent trial.
Most of the patients had the more difficult to treat EM AML. It achieved in these patients 40% ORR and impressive reduction in
solid tumor form of AML (
see image below) …. at
half the historic dose (the patients didn’t receive the consolidation course used in the historic trials).
View attachment 3477404Then we have
two independent preclinical studies that confirm Bisantrene to be a potent killer of Cancer, with that work partly focused on AML but suggesting potential well beyond AML (through inhibiting FTO). This was the work by City of Hope last year and now
independently confirmed by the University of Chicago.
To summarise everything that's important for AML though:
- The drug has strong evidence of performance as a single-agent (indeed RACE are running both single-agent and combination usage of Bisantrene as part of their plans)
- Fully-patented
- 7 years commercial exclusivity (FDA orphan drug designation)
- FDA rare paediatric disease designation
- Over 2,000 patients historically treated (so all the safety issues are known)
- Over 40 Phase II and Phase III trials
- Safety and efficacy well-established historically
- The drug still works as shown by the trial completed in 2020
- Drug remanufactured, now to better quality than historically
With all of this in mind 6.7% probability of success priced in. This is just nonsense. IMO clinical probability of success is well over 50% for AML.
RACE should be trading at a market cap of USD $2.45B (AUD $3.32B).
That implies RACE should be trading at a share price of $19 on a fully-diluted basis … notwithstanding the massive potential outside AML (easily 5-10x the revenue potential in indications outside of AML).
IMO. DYOR.
(20min delay)