Personally I think if the Israel trial results are positive, it shows that Bisantrene still works, and in my opinion anything less than a market cap of $300m for a drug that was approved, used, worked and proven to still work would be cheap. Therefore I believe $1 could be passed very quickly very soon - IF the results are positive!...
If Bisantrene proves to still work there will be two types of Pharma that would like to own it - one that wants to put it back on the shelf, and one that wants to keep it off the shelf.
I have put together a large number of possible scenarios, but the one I give the highest probability to with least amount of risk is success in path 3 (based on historical results, Jaap and PRV). If this happens I wouldn't be surprised if SP was around $5 at the time and offer was made at $14 a share (I have estimated diluted shares to be approx 175m as I expect a CR once SP is over $1).
The highest value I've given to my valuations is $46 / share, but that is if all 5 paths are proven to be successful, which personally I do not think will happen. I can't envisage RAC to be the owner of Bisantrene up to that point...
These SP valuations are based on the historical avg of AUD/USD, so when I consider the amount of money the US is printing at the moment and how that will impact the exchange rate, I have revalued these down to $8 and $22.
This is why I have a hard time understanding why the sell side gets orders put in around the 30c mark for the last few weeks - even if you did by in at less than 10c... I plan to sell off a portion at the earlier of either success in path 3, or traders pushing the share price to my path 3 value. And then holding the rest for a takeover.
... Just to balance this post out, I also have a scenario where the Israel trials are not successful and RAC finds Bisantrene is not effective enough in combination and the SP essentially goes down to $0.00... So there is still plenty of risk within the investment.
The good thing about being invested in RAC is I believe we will know where our investment stands within 3 years, so I don't think we'll get dragged along like I have experienced with other bio stocks I hold.
IMO, DYOR, GLTAH, etc
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$1.82 |
Change
-0.005(0.27%) |
Mkt cap ! $306.5M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$1.83 | $1.86 | $1.80 | $91.02K | 49.47K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 3970 | $1.82 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$1.83 | 5586 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 1000 | 1.805 |
5 | 3859 | 1.800 |
1 | 1000 | 1.795 |
5 | 9399 | 1.790 |
1 | 4374 | 1.785 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
1.820 | 1513 | 1 |
1.830 | 5586 | 1 |
1.835 | 150 | 1 |
1.860 | 449 | 1 |
1.865 | 242 | 1 |
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