RAC - Crystal ball gazing

Hi all,

I am not one to create a SP forecast thread but in this case I will.

Race has spent the last 12 months to get the RC220 drug manufactured and past the tox gates. Next steps as we know is ethics/ governance approvals. The main steps though come post that which is patient recruitment, dosing and most importantly interim results as it will be open label trials.

So upon positive interim readouts I make the following SP/ MC prediction - I will use round numbers for convenience:

Current SP: $2
Current MC: $300 Mn

1a: Upon positive phase 1a interim results confirming safety in humans:
Forecast SP: $5
Forecast MC: $750 Mn

1b: Upon positive phase 1b interim results confirming the efficacy, ie cardio-protection in humans:

Forecast SP: $10
Forecast MC: $1.5 Bn

Those are my conservative to moderate optimism estimates. For my optimistic (aggressive) estimates please double them.

Over to you- please mention your estimates for 1a and 1b separately along with any rationale if possible. Thanks.