That peer-based valuation based on Forty Seven from November...

That peer-based valuation based on Forty Seven from November last year you referred to is just for Leukaemia ( essentially just for Pillar 1 ).

https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/48891722/single

So that earlier valuation you referred to doesn't factor in Pillar 1 - FTO or Pillar 2 - Breast Cancer.


My current risked valuation just for AML is $19-20. That is from pages 10 and 11 of the PDF in this post ( page 11 explains the assumptions used ).

https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/51743558/single

A blockbuster buyout would nominally be in the USD $8B to USD $21B range, which is the basis for the $52 to $135 per share range I have in the summary chart below (the USD $8B to USD $21B is the range of the blockbuster transactions on page 9 of the PDF).

$75 per share is my current risked valuation (from page 10 of the PDF). So at the moment I think $75 is the minimum buyout value I would like to see. Ultimately it would be up to other shareholders to agree with me for RACE to achieve a buyout at this level, but that is what currently I think RACE is worth.

That risked valuation will only move up as RACE progress their strategy ( start trials, dose first patients, release FTO preclinical results, release first readouts from AML and Breast Cancer trials).



If RACE successfully progress trials and preclinical activity in accordance with the plan below I think during Q2 2022 my risked buyout valuation will pass $100 per share.



To achieve a buyout at $100 per share we'd ideally need the share price trading at $33 (assuming a 200% buyout premium ).

To achieve a buyout at $135 per share we'd ideally need the share price trading at $45 (assuming a 200% buyout premium).