RACE Oncology - FA

This is my latest valuation report for RAC and a quick way to come up to speed.

Originally posted to this thread:

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/race-oncology-valuation-june-2020.5469594/#.Xww85ZMzZQ8

• this valuation was done prior to today's placement, which will nominally add only 2.78M shares, see https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/45818044/single
• RAC are now essentially funded through to 2022, see https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/45818044/single

DYOR. No specific buy or sell recommendation intended.
M&A peer comparisons have been used as basis for calculating risked and unrisked perspective of value based on previous buyouts of Drug-Development Biotechs. Valuations assume a future buyout transaction to a Big Pharma based on positive readouts from one or more Phase II trials (assumed timeframe 18 to 36 months). Estimates assume trials are funded from Research Grants, Partnerships or Equity Raises within a 30% cap of additional dilution on current share structure.​

Valuation

Risked peer-based valuation $4.60 recognises very strong clinical maturity from historic AML trials recently validated by a trial in heavily pre-treated (very difficult to treat) Adult R/R AML patients in Israel. This valuation is against potential for 3 x AML pipelines and excludes compelling additional upside for pathways for Breast Cancer and Ovarian Cancer among other forms of cancer.

Long-term targets (unrisked) $30+

(see PDF for full valuation)