Thanks. Took a bit of time to find my old posts. Good to have key thoughts and all the assumptions in one place. There's so much conservatism in the numbers - size of market (only US, Europe, Australia considered), market penetration, drug pricing (other treatment prices are up to 200% higher), allows for 30% dilution, 85% margin of safety.
Plus generally 30% clinical probably assumed for AML when it should really be 50%, management execution probability 50%. Results in margin of safety 85%.
Current market cap prices Bisantrene at only about 1% total probability of success for AML.
RACE Oncology Valuation - June 2020, page-3
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