Radiopharm - anyone know how this compares to TLX?, page-31

I agree the thought of being taken over at a small premium is repulsive. I think back to what U.S Filter did to Memtech, yuk.

You ask how I would value 177Lu if it is a success. I'm afraid I can't do that. The potential for 177Lu is obviously huge but at this stage it is too speculative to value with certainty, so I won't even try. There is the risk of missed endpoints, delays to approvals, narrow indications and new competitors to name a few. Think of all the other developments in this space, after all cancer is a molecular disease so the ultimate treatment is going to be molecular not radiological. Radiological therapeutics are having their time in the sun but how long they will last absolutely no one knows.

I must admit my thoughts about what is a fair price for Telix are currently confused. Telix is in a critical situation at the moment that makes estimating its "true" value extremely difficult for me. I usually differentiate between investing and speculating. Telix is an investment because of the well developed stage Illucix is at, it's a great product and it looks like it's going to the basis of a great business. I'm content to have a stake in a business like that. It also has a speculative component in 177Lu. I'm reluctant to bet my future on speculation about uncertain outcomes, even if I am given good odds.

I hate the hype of "the next big thing" type talk. Lots of cricketers have been labelled the "Next Bradman" at the start of their careers but none have acheived it. Maybe one day people will refer to the latest startup as a potential "Next Telix".