Risk is relative, I think investing in good companies (like Telix) while not risk free is safer in the long run than holding cash, especially if they are being given away like in 2020 when TLX was under $0.5B market cap and we had already read Hofman's ProPSMA study re 68GA-PSMA. At that point it was difficult to imagine a likely scenario where it didn't become widely and profitably used with a long future and Telix's value grow. That was a situation that rarely arises where the market clearly had it wrong.
I can't fault your analysis of the current situation including the potential for a jump up to around $4B market cap on approval and plenty of headroom above that. If they do become the next "xxl" with $100B market cap (sp = $200) then it will be worth more than I can reasonably spend anyway so no need to take on extra risk now.
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