Rafael flow rate

Hi all

What a crazy day! There's been some interesting posts on here and I think we can all agree on one thing and that is, it's too early to call it.

What is pretty clear however is the reason for the sell down today was due to flow rate of 5mmscf being a lot lower than some had expected. If punters were basing their expectations based on Waitsia wells for example they would've expected circa 30-50mmscf however as previously posted on here by others, the Perth basin wells are dry unlike Rafael so not a direct comparison as we have potentially 30bbl/mmscf which would be 30MM BOE upside if this turns out to be 1TCF as others have speculated.

I would be lying if I said I wasn't disappointed as I was expecting much higher flow rate myself, however I also note the following:

1. Eric previously advised he wouldn't be doing a "flow for show" so this may be a factor.

2. There is a barefoot completion and sanding unit on site so perhaps they limited draw down to reduce sanding issues or damaging the reservoir.

3. There are still several zones under casing of which one resulted in gas influxes during drilling so plenty of upside potential.

A couple of other things I noted was that the reservoir estimate will only be of the lower ungani section and may also disappoint some punters who would be expecting resource estimate based on all zones.

I'm also keen to know when they will test the upper zones. It would be great if they did it whilst they had the crew on site but I'm guessing they don't have the perforation guns on site etc as it wasn't previously mentioned as part of the flow test plan. Perhaps testing the upper zones is an addition due to the lower than expected rates from the lower zone.

I'm not a technical expert, these are just my observations. I'll be sitting tight until resource estimate is out and then make an informed decision after that.

thanks all for your input!