Reminder of the recent Fosters research note of 25th June
Earnings and Valuation:
• We estimate first revenues and earnings for CAY in FY24 from Minim Martap.
We forecast NPAT of $11M in FY24e rising to $52M in FY28e as bauxite prices
rise and Guinea supply growth subsides.
• We value CAY at $0.32/share, based on 0.5x NPV10. We assume equity: debt
funding of 50:50. However given the tier 1 asset, strategic/offtaker equity in
project and/or CAY are also viable. Our unrisked NPV10 of CAY is $0.66/share.
Rail for Stage 2?, page-32
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