Obviously there's lots of things to consider when valuing a...

Obviously there's lots of things to consider when valuing a business...

I'm holding this beauty for a long time (provided no significant changes come our way) and I like to look at valuing Base in the simplest of ways...

Until 2021, we should be generating about 132m in free cash flow if mineral sands markets stay at current levels. Once 2021 comes around, we'll have tolaria online and I'm betting that Base increases it's footprint in Kenya and Tanzania... Let's not forget it is the flagship company for the Kenyan 2030 vision.

Of course I'm not putting any numbers to these, however, with Tolaria is said to be capable of producing similar revenue to Kwale and additional mines still in production (including the end of Kwale)... Base should be earning a minimum of 130m in free cash flow for 40 years. For me, that put's Base at a valuation of close to 1.5bn.

I think I'm being relatively conservative?

But... in this game... we're wrong until we're right.