raks............pssst, page-34

Bluesdog...

I guess you could say we have had worse days!

I think today's announcement holds far more weight than many realise.

Sure, we are now sitting on 24mmbls (net) recoverable...and of course significant gas...and it appears a likely cost sharing arrangement with both our neightbours, all of which is pretty obviously good news.

But, more importantly, for the first time since my interest the company has a real, quantifiable, fall-back value...one that not only supports a decision to invest heavily at current levels, but to some extent, supports significant investment from the more conservative types, including insto's and funds.

On this issue, I kind of hope Smyth hold this off as long as possible and let them sweet it out on market for a bit first, just as we have.

Anyway, we have seen today the fleting glimpse of a fundamentally supported rerating process. For me, this is the single most significant event since I first invested for the simplt fact my only ongoing concern was for a terminal rejection from the locals, be it CVI's partners of choice or indeed the the government themselves. Whilst all evidence was to the contrary, with such lucrative deals in this part of the world, you never can be 100% sure.

As such, prior to today, CVI was perhaps a little left of centre on the "speculative" scale, to the extent one needed to be vigilant almost to the point of obsession in regards to the daily trading activity. As I see it, this concern was all but removed today, the remnants of which should vanish entirely once the offical documentation has been ratified.

This gives me a certain degree of comfort...and like others I am sure, an instant argument against trading the stock to build a margin over our entry prices...or in other words, the sort of pre-emptive stop-loss activity many larger holders employ.

Whilst it has been some time since I actively traded CVI (under 20c in fact), large moves on volume always attract a mitigation response, whereby one feels inclined to trade for net points on downwards pressure, as part of a stop-loss regime, or simply reduce exposure at given trigger lines.

As of today, the need for this sort of approach (anything below 50c), in my mind simply no longer exists, a view I suspect will be shared by more than one larger holder.

If I am right, you should find the level of trading and associated churn activity to reduce considerably in the period ahead and a sentiment driven trading pattern ensue not unlike that seen prior to the options entitlement.

Personally, I find myself in a very comfortable place.

Cheers!