Lets hope we get a decent tech bounce in the DJIA / XJO next few days to allow some of our rowers who are caught on margin a chance to reduce their exposure ahead of further coming realities. U gotta make hard decisions sometimes to ensure u r still in the game longer term.
On day of 1987 crash (25% fall) I pressed the sell button and recovered 70% of my previous day's peak value. I was lucky cos didnt have any ASX 200 stox then. Forrestania, Golden Grove and Geometals were my saviours amongst the other specs I held. Had I held to 1991 end, I would have been effectively wiped out.
XAO fell further 25% in ensuing months to be at HALF its highs at Feb 88, then dead-catted sideways all the way to Jan 15, 1991 double bottom XAO 1150 ........taking a WAR (Irak mark 1) to trigger the new uptrend cycle.
They used Irak Mark 2 (together with a new terror-fear techno safety con industry) this time round to provide the drive for an extended "B" retrace rally from Oct 12 2002 lows.
On confirmation thru XAO 1430 or so from memory in April 1991, I was fully re-invested in resources stox again and set myself up for 500% net portfolio gain ahead of cashing up in 1996 ahead of the Asian meltdown.
The reason I was ABLE to play from day 1 of the new bullwave and hence maximise when most waited too long to re-enter (or were able to) was cos I had my residual cash sitting at 17% in Commbank ...... remember THOSE days ? ....... waiting for the signs of new Bull. It allowed me to move in at the right TIME with cash greater than my pre-crash peak portfolio value.
Its all in TIMING and u dont have to win evey battle to win the war ....... but u gotta make sure u stay alive to be able to continue playing the game pro-actively ahead of the herd.
Market has already given us early warning signs but the test of fire will be post Sep 30. Consider yrselves fortunate u r in an XJO company here which will move with the market in the rallies as well all else put aside. DONT GET COMPLACENT in this period but use it wisely to reduce yr vulnerability so u can still be around to enjoy the ultimate spoils.
Just a pity we didnt get the roadshows done earlier and be pulling back from 7 buck highs instead. Then again be thankful we have focused miners on our hands and who have placed us in a most enviable position looking beyond.
U know my thoughts from day 1 about all this if I was running the show. Make oxides a cashcow with FULL earnings paid out as divvies to support the shareprice (5% yield basis would mean abt 6+ bucks whilst Rome was burning and keep us outa reach of the sharks) and gungho on the 100% solo Uranium development toward a 3+ mill lbs pa producer 2009-10, dual - listed on the TSX ...... we have the cash + debt facility (if needed) in place for such.
Re sulphides, let HNC take the running and if they didnt want in, we could do it OURSELVES SOLO stepwise from oxides + U cashflows + modest debt at a time when resources supercycle was kicking off on paper burn.
Personally prefer we did sulphides solo post oxides + U but MOST UNLIKELY IMO we will get that chance, cos HNC would be DROOLING and others waiting on the sidelines to take their spot if they didnt. I mean what a sitting duck for an Xstrata to fill their LEAD production voids apart from everything else ........ even for the Uranium they missed out on with WMC.
We are perfect-storm worthy and ship-shape with heaps of LEAD ballast fellow Olympians and hence personally welcome any firesale opportunities ahead to add to the core.
Meanwhile lets see what kinda rally Uncle Sam can manufacture next few DAYS. We are cork-popping between the 3rd and 4th and maybe 5th marker buoys atm depending what comes from global preso happening. Biggest mid-term vulnerability IMO is the health of the two US hedge funds on our register and likely to be exposed post Sep 30 (IMO) ...... therein lies the opportunity for us waiting cashed up in ambush IMO.
Meanwhile DJI support levels are at 12700 and 11600 on its way to the GORM MEGA-PIVOT 9500-9800 for a perceived 30+% "healthy retrace" All of Hades breaks loose below that if it becomes an issue with further supports attempting to hold back the THEN confirmed MegaBear-C wreaking havoc thru 7950-8150, 7200 and below. More about that LATER IFFFFF it becomes an issue, pray Zeus it doesnt !
IMBOOC
CMR Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
