ramblings of a mad ramper, page-20

blackhawk1 this is some work i did a while ago on the effect of generic sales retained by majors due to the unifilll syringe
http://www.cfr.org/publication/18055/generic_drugs.html

A 2007 article in the New England Journal of Medicine notes that, by 2010, patents on some ,110 drugs will expire including some of the industry's most profitable sellers. Estimates for yearly sales of these drugs range as high as $80 billion. Such expirations come at a time when the industry is bringing fewer drugs to market. The profit holes from the expiration of blockbusters are unlikely to be filled (Forbes) because of the lack of new blockbusters, such as U.S.-based Pfizer's cholesterol drug Lipitor, which alone earns nearly $13 billion annually (its patent is expected to expire in 2010). And some companies are seeing sales of popular drugs begin to decline (IHT). (Many of the world's top pharmaceutical patent holders are based in the United States, with others located primarily in Europe and Japan.)
A branded drug can lose anywhere from 40 percent to 80 percent of its market share within the first year of market introduction by a generic rival in the United States, according to the FTC. Although the generic drug market represents about 65 percent of U.S. prescriptions, those drugs represent just only about 20 percent of industry profits (generics sell at just a fraction of the cost of name brand medicines).

http://www.theheart.org/article/1113347.do
The sanofi aventis drug Lovenox is beginning to face generic competition
Worldwide sales of Lovenox came to roughly $3.9 billion in 2009, according to a Sanofi-Aventis financial report. And that?s just one drug

Alan Shortall has stated that the pharmaceutical companies have indicated strongly to him that they are not only prepared to pay for the syringe on which we would get a profit but wish to share the difference in the amount of market saved with Unilife in the case lovenox alone this would therefore be a share of between 1.56 billion and 3.12 billion. The percentage shared to unilife can only be speculated at this time however at 10% that would seem to be 156 million to 312 million per annum . On a company that has 52 million shares trading at just under $6.00 on the NASDAQ
At 10% $3.00
At 20% $ 6.00
At 30% $9.00
At 40% $12.00

AND THIS IS ONLY ONE PATENT EXPIRING

If you take the 80 billion worldwide expiration as a whole and if Unilife were to supply for all 40% to 80 % is equal to 32 to 64 billion dollars