Yes, it is the Big 4 business news items due out of the USA this week as described here. That is:
FOMC meeting, with the QE taper plan expected to continue at the same rate.
GDP report, with analysts looking for 1% GDP growth.
ISM on Thursday, target = 54.5.
NFP on Friday, which is usually the big market mover, with a target of 210,000 additional jobs. This time bad weather cannot be an excuse for missing the target. Last month I was long and hoping for a NFP in the 225k to 250k range, but the NFP disappointed as at 192k it was below the target of 200k.
If any of the above targets are not reached, then perhaps a sell off could be triggered. I noted that Martis stated earlier that he has closed his long positions today and he is expecting a sell off tonight. Is this the first time that Martis has said that? On the contrary, I find that his calls often make sense.
In addition, China’s PMI data is due out on Thursday with a consensus target of 50.5. This item could have at least as big an influence as the USA data, particularly if the China PMI drops significantly.
Last month I opened several long trades in the lead up to the NFP on Friday 4-Apr. This month I am inclined to open several short trades in the lead up to the NFP on Friday 2-May. Perhaps the ‘sell in May’ effect will have an influence as well.
What will be the effect of the Aussie budget on the local market, probably not much imo. Perhaps super funds like AMP might take a hit if the government fiddles with the super rules again.
