Ramp up of next PLS shipment..., page-1289

While AKE said they are negotiating US$5,000 (on SC6% basis) for the June Quarter, I'll take a conservative stab at the cashflows PLS may generate for the June quarter.

Before I complete June quarter estimates, I expect March quarter operating cashflow will be ~AUD$172 mill, therefore cash balance likely to nudging AUD$400 mill as at 31 March after allowing for admin, debt and other costs. This calculation includes delayed shipment of 16.5kt (@US$1,775) for Dec Q shipped in the March Q, which meant average pricing for March quarter was dragged down to the lower end of guidance of US$2,650, where guidance was $2,600 to $3,000.

Assumptions;

• Calculations focus on operating cashflow, thus admin, debt, capex and tax not included
• June Q contract pricing of US$3,750pt
• Cost of production - US$500
• Currency conversion rate of 1.37
• Pilgan plant improvements complete, thus capacity 370kt (92.5kt / quarter)
• Delayed shipment of 20kt pushed into June quarter, pricing assumed at US$2,996pt, upper end of March quarter guidance
• 1 x BMX Auction, 5kt at SC5.5%, at US$5,000pt

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• Delayed shipment of 20kt - 20kt x US$2,496 *1.37 = AUD$68.39 mill
• Pilgan Plant production/shipped - 92.5kt x US$3,250 * 1.37 = AUD$412 mill
• BMX Auction - 5kt x US$4,500 * 1.37 = AUD$30.83 mill

Therefore, I forecast operating cashflow for June quarter to be ~AUD$511 mill

Given my spod contract pricing estimates are well below what AKE announced for their June quarter sales, I would expect you could use my above pricing assumptions for the Sep quarter, which would suggest the company will punch through AUD$1 bill cash balance in Sep quarter, after admin, debt and tax. Show me the money....

AIMO, not advice, please DYOR