Ramp up of next PLS shipment..., page-2640

@sorest,

As per the post a few above us, there's 215 ktpa worth of OTAs that will expire at the end of the CY (December of 2024), but we still have 160 ktpa contracted with Ganfeng until December of 2027.

We can anticipate that the POSCO JV still needs to get Train 2 up and running, and then complete ramp-up, so the 12/24 OTA expirations will likely coincide fairly well with the POSCO JV ramp-up, at which point we're looking at 315 ktpa (and as another poster has stated, that's based on SC6, so if we're shipping SC5.3-SC5.5, it might take another 8-10% tonnage to meet the end lithium requirement).

That means that by December 2024, we will be running at 680 ktpa (it sounds like we might be able to produce even a bit more, but let's keep things conservative), and we will have OTAs for 475 ktpa, leaving us with a potential 205 ktpa of "extra" capacity, IN THEORY. Let's not forget that the AGM presentation indicates that we are in talks with a potential downstream partner for a third JV, and the BOD was clear that it is downstream, and not midstream.

Another uptake customer that I haven't seen many discuss is the Calix JV. As I recall, we're starting with the test plant which will require 27 ktpa feedstock to produce 3 ktpa of Lithium Phosphate, once ramp-up is complete (probably two years for construction and ramp-up). After that, the process is modular, and as each treatment silo is added (we COULD ramp-up to ten silos, based on the capacity of the remaining equipment, which would get us to 270 ktpa of spod concentrate to produce 30 ktpa of Li3PO4), though it'd be 2026 before we're at ramp-up for the first silo, and even with a full commitment to the tech, it'd probably be 2028 before we're running at ramp-up for ten silos.

Finally, we've already started the pre-work for P1000, which is due to commission (first ore) by "March Quarter" of (Q3 FY 25) 2025 and reach nameplate by "September Quarter" (Q1 FY26) of 2025. That would take us to 525 ktpa of "excess capacity," less the Calix JV demand and whatever this third potential JV they were talking about in the AGM presentation might require.

Best regards to all