"Essentially each demand growth of 1 million EV per year requires a new mine, or expansion of an existing mine, slightly bigger than PLS Stage 1 development discussed above."
The figure bandied around by analysts and yourself is 2 million EV units sold in 2018. I'm not sure how accurate that is nor the 63 kg of lithium in a 70 kWh Tesla Model S battery pack which was estimated by Goldman Sachs (The Giant Squid), not the most reliable purveyor of market data IMO. How accurate are these two numbers? Do you have reputable sources for these two numbers?
I recently posted data for US 2018 EV sales from data compiled by cleantechnica.com.
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/da...07629/page-7996?post_id=37634727#.XI4hbRo_WhAI can't vouch for the accuracy of this data but in the US, "several fully electric models saw their sales decline in the 4th quarter of 2018 versus the 4th quarter of 2017. Aside from the new models (Jaguar I-PACE and Honda Clarity EV), the only models that saw growth were the Tesla Model 3, Tesla Model S, Tesla Model X, and Nissan LEAF."
I have recently heard anactodal evidence from Tesla market bulls that Tesla retained 14% of the world-wide EV market share in 2018, ie 14% of the 2 million EV sales.
By Tesla's own guidance it expects to deliver 400k EV units in 2019. If they retain market share of 14% then that is equivalent to about 2.86 million EV units in 2019 and by your analysis that means another 322,500t of 6% spodumene will need to come onto the market in 2019 to supply the delivery of 2.86 million EVs. That is total of 1,072,500 dmt of 6% spodumene by your calcultions, ie using 375,000 dmt of spod for 1 million EVs/annum.
I don't know when all these projects (in the chart below) are due to reach nameplate capacity (I'd need to do more research to figure that out) but the total capacity according to that chart (which I can't vouch for) is ~ 2,175,000 dmt or about twice the amount required should Tesla hit guidance and maintain market share in 2019.
View attachment 1480007https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/lithium-supply-revisited/You'd know more about when this capacity is due to come on line. Do you care to comment? I'd also suggest that there must be more small scale capacity than reflected in that chart and also from battery grade brine production.
By the way Tesla had a bad night on Friday, down 5% on the unveiling of the model y.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/15/tesla-shares-fall-5-percent-after-company-unveils-model-y.htmlTesla's sales policy is very curious to me, taking large depoists from customers for cars thappt might be delivered in one or two years time. Not a great business model as pre-sales of the model "y" (Model 3 in SUV form) will just bite into current sales of the Model 3. Also the company relies on these pre-sales (customer deposits) for capital managment purposes, not a regular practice for car makers.
Also if 50% of the story below is true then Tesla is a better subject for a movie script than a car company.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/feat...d-to-destroy-tesla-whistleblower-martin-tripp
(20min delay)