RHG 0.00% 50.0¢ rhg limited

I feel that the point most are missing here is that NAB is...

  1. al1
    2,005 Posts.
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    I feel that the point most are missing here is that NAB is leading the charge here...
    ...why would they do that...
    ....maybe because...and this is not supported by any insider information..just deduction and common sensese and deduction..
    ...NAB may already have its position...and wants to disperse risk across the market...its already sold off its global car fleet 15 months ago ie Custom Fleet to general Electri for $550 mill that added $24mill net profit to the banks profit in 2007...
    ...now now NAB plans and when they say "plans"...it normally means its already a done deal....
    ....plans to sell off its LOCAL vehicle leasing business to a unit of a South African based Super Group for $342mill....

    ....the reason they are doing all this is....
    ....so they can concentrate onits core banking activities....

    ....now what does that mean for banks traditionally....
    ....only one thing....
    ...loans..for residentialo and commercial...
    they are cashing out ....at a profit....

    to pounce on a target...at a significant discount...
    ...one ...that is lower risk...fully insured.....any loan defaults...the insurer pays up...no loss...

    oine has to also consider the fact that financial services sector took a big hit even thouh they had no exposure to the US sub prime market...
    ...the financial sevices sectopr cannot afford to allow any collapses...\

    its in their best interest to especially support a company like RAMS...because they are exposed to no financial risk...its all insured....
    ...as for NAB they like to have a profit margin...thats how banks work...doing spreads...
    ...consider that NAB and other banks have had to get loans off the books in order to make more loans...or they would have to comply with regulatory regulation ...by depositing more funds with the Reserve Bank...by being able to shift the loans book onto another company they are free to make more loans...

    ...if they owned RAMs as a seperate company...they could ...shift loans to rams ...and contine to sell more loans...without diluting their cash reserves ..ie deposing fund to the RBA ar at a lower rate of retur......
    they have the best of both worlds...
    ...they ditch the loans at a profit...but really still own them....but as they are in a different company...regulatory requirements won't apply....
    ...I believe ..that NAB has been buying on market till its got 19.9% of the stock...
    I furthur suspect ..their is a deal with the major shareholders of RAMS..that they will sell their stock to NAB in a takeover at the best price...with a condition that if a better offer comes along the shareholders are free to accept the best price...the same price that all shareholder will receive....
    ..the present capital raising..as I will call it...is designed to reinvigorate the financial services sector...for if one falls they all suffer....
    ...if a fully insured lender falls over what hope is their for the rest....

    MBL and BNB were punished and have fully recovered....all suffered because of the US financial sector....
    ..NAB by doing this sends a stron message to the US...
    ..now that interest rates are .5% lower than the sub prime debacle...the message is...no risk companies should not be punished for you mess...if u do this we will save them and make the profits ourselves...and we won't be coming back...we are strong enough to stand alone...
    ...end of the day...RHG is a good bolt on asset for NAB...
    but other banks know this...and come a takeover they will ponce..arbritge traders will be in the market on expectations of other offers...

    ..Merrils apparently say its wort $1.20 pre this placement of an initial $250 million...thats testing the water...now they may well have to do another valuation....
    ....the abnormal high daily volumes strongly suggest big players are accumulating....when they go to lunch trading comes to a standstill..
    ...when it rises too much...they slam on the brakes and the price retraces..suggesting they are achieving a lower average buying price till they have the 19.9% of the stock they require..
    come takeover i feel they will initially have on market buys of 19.9% plus agreed substantiakl shareholder stock commitments of 20% +10% giving them 49.9% putting them way in front only having to match any counter offers.....its all based on logic and tactics....
 
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